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Title: Human Initiated Cascading Failures in Societal Infrastructures

Journal Article · · PLoS ONE
 [1];  [2];  [3];  [1];  [1];  [1];  [1];  [1];  [4];  [1]
  1. Virginia Polytechnic Institute and State University (Virginia Tech), Blacksburg, VA (United States)
  2. Ericsson, San Jose, CA (United States)
  3. Microsoft Corporation, Seattle, WA (United States)
  4. NetApp, Inc., Research Triangle Park, NC (United States)
+ Show Author Affiliations

In this paper, we conduct a systematic study of human-initiated cascading failures in three critical inter-dependent societal infrastructures due to behavioral adaptations in response to a crisis. We focus on three closely coupled socio-technical networks here: (i) cellular and mesh networks, (ii) transportation networks and (iii) mobile call networks. In crises, changes in individual behaviors lead to altered travel, activity and calling patterns, which influence the transport network and the loads on wireless networks. The interaction between these systems and their co-evolution poses significant technical challenges for representing and reasoning about these systems. In contrast to system dynamics models for studying these interacting infrastructures, we develop interaction-based models in which individuals and infrastructure elements are represented in detail and are placed in a common geographic coordinate system. Using the detailed representation, we study the impact of a chemical plume that has been released in a densely populated urban region. Authorities order evacuation of the affected area, and this leads to individual behavioral adaptation wherein individuals drop their scheduled activities and drive to home or pre-specified evacuation shelters as appropriate. They also revise their calling behavior to communicate and coordinate among family members. These two behavioral adaptations cause flash-congestion in the urban transport network and the wireless network. The problem is exacerbated with a few, already occurring, road closures. We analyze how extended periods of unanticipated road congestion can result in failure of infrastructures, starting with the servicing base stations in the congested area. A sensitivity analysis on the compliance rate of evacuees shows non-intuitive effect on the spatial distribution of people and on the loading of the base stations. For example, an evacuation compliance rate of 70% results in higher number of overloaded base stations than the evacuation compliance rate of 90%.

Research Organization:
Virginia Polytechnic Institute and State University (Virginia Tech), Blacksburg, VA (United States)
Sponsoring Organization:
USDOE Office of Science (SC); National Science Foundation (NSF); Defense Threat Reduction Agency (DTRA); US Naval Surface Warfare Center; National Institutes of Health (NIH)
Grant/Contract Number:
SC0003957; CNS-0626964; SES-0729441; OCI-0904844; CNS-0831633; CNS-0845700; CNS-1011769; OCI-1032677; HDTRA1-0901-0017; HDTRA1-07-C-0113; N00178-09-D-3017
OSTI ID:
1904535
Journal Information:
PLoS ONE, Vol. 7, Issue 10; ISSN 1932-6203
Publisher:
Public Library of ScienceCopyright Statement
Country of Publication:
United States
Language:
English

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A Modeling Framework for System Restoration from Cascading Failures journal December 2014

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Related Subjects

97 MATHEMATICS AND COMPUTING
roads
transportation infrastructure
urban infrastructure
transportation
telecommunications
human mobility
social systems
network analysis