Robust but weak winter atmospheric circulation response to future Arctic sea ice loss

Smith, D. M.; Eade, R.; Andrews, M. B.; Ayres, H.; Clark, A.; Chripko, S.; Deser, C.; Dunstone, N. J.; García-Serrano, J.; Gastineau, G.; Graff, L. S.; Hardiman, S. C.; He, B.; Hermanson, L.; Jung, T.; Knight, J.; Levine, X.; Magnusdottir, G.; Manzini, E.; Matei, D.; Mori, M.; Msadek, R.; Ortega, P.; Peings, Y.; Scaife, A. A.; Screen, J. A.; Seabrook, M.; Semmler, T.; Sigmond, M.; Streffing, J.; Sun, L.; Walsh, A.

doi:10.1038/s41467-022-28283-y

Robust but weak winter atmospheric circulation response to future Arctic sea ice loss

Journal Article · Mon Feb 07 04:00:00 EST 2022 · Nature Communications

DOI:https://doi.org/10.1038/s41467-022-28283-y· OSTI ID:1904333

^[1]; Eade, R. ^[2]; Andrews, M. B. ^[2]; ^[3]; Clark, A. ^[2]; Chripko, S. ^[4]; ^[5]; Dunstone, N. J. ^[2]; García-Serrano, J. ^[6]; Gastineau, G. ^[7]; ^[8]; Hardiman, S. C. ^[2]; ^[9]; ^[2]; ^[10]; Knight, J. ^[2]; ^[11]; ^[12]; Manzini, E. ^[13]; Matei, D. ^[13] more »

Met Office Hadley Centre, Exeter (United Kingdom); Met Office, Hadley Centre, Exeter (United Kingdom)
Met Office Hadley Centre, Exeter (United Kingdom)
University of Reading (United Kingdom)
University of Toulouse (France)
National Center for Atmospheric Research (NCAR), Boulder, CO (United States)
University of Barcelona (Spain)
Sorbonne University, Paris (France)
Norwegian Meteorological Institute, Oslo (Norway)
Chinese Academy of Sciences (CAS), Beijing (China)
Helmholtz Centre for Polar and Marine Research, Bremerhaven (Germany)
Barcelona Supercomputing Center, Barcelona (Spain)
University of California, Irvine, CA (United States)
Max-Planck-Institut für Meteorologie, Hamburg (Germany)
Kyushu University, Fukuoka (Japan)
Met Office Hadley Centre, Exeter (United Kingdom); University of Exeter (United Kingdom)
University of Exeter (United Kingdom)
Canadian Centre for Climate Modelling and Analysis, Victoria, BC (Canada)
Colorado State University, Fort Collins, CO (United States)

The possibility that Arctic sea ice loss weakens mid-latitude westerlies, promoting more severe cold winters, has sparked more than a decade of scientific debate, with apparent support from observations but inconclusive modelling evidence. Here we show that sixteen models contributing to the Polar Amplification Model Intercomparison Project simulate a weakening of mid-latitude westerlies in response to projected Arctic sea ice loss. We develop an emergent constraint based on eddy feedback, which is 1.2 to 3 times too weak in the models, suggesting that the real-world weakening lies towards the higher end of the model simulations. Still, the modelled response to Arctic sea ice loss is weak: the North Atlantic Oscillation response is similar in magnitude and offsets the projected response to increased greenhouse gases, but would only account for around 10% of variations in individual years. We further find that relationships between Arctic sea ice and atmospheric circulation have weakened recently in observations and are no longer inconsistent with those in models.

View Accepted Manuscript (DOE)

Research Organization:: University of California, Irvine, CA (United States)

Sponsoring Organization:: USDOE Office of Science (SC); European Union; UK-China Research and Innovation Partnership; Natural Environment Research Council (NERC); Research council of Norway; German Federal Ministry of Education and Research; National Science Foundation (NSF); Chinese Academy of Sciences; Spanish Ramón y Cajal’ programme; German Research Foundation (DFG)

Grant/Contract Number:: SC0019407

OSTI ID:: 1904333

Journal Information:: Nature Communications, Journal Name: Nature Communications Journal Issue: 1 Vol. 13; ISSN 2041-1723

Publisher:: Nature Publishing GroupCopyright Statement

Country of Publication:: United States

Language:: English

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Twenty-First-Century Climate Impacts from a Declining Arctic Sea Ice Cover Singarayer, Joy S.; Bamber, Jonathan L.; Valdes, Paul J. Journal of Climate, Vol. 19, Issue 7 https://doi.org/10.1175/JCLI3649.1	journal	April 2006
Stratospheric response to Arctic sea ice retreat and associated planetary wave propagation changes Jaiser, Ralf; Dethloff, Klaus; Handorf, Dörthe Tellus A: Dynamic Meteorology and Oceanography, Vol. 65, Issue 1 https://doi.org/10.3402/tellusa.v65i0.19375	journal	May 2013
Stationary planetary wave propagation in Northern Hemisphere winter – climatological analysis of the refractive index Li, Q.; Graf, H. -F.; Giorgetta, M. A. Atmospheric Chemistry and Physics, Vol. 7, Issue 1 https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-7-183-2007	journal	January 2007
Zonal-mean data set of global atmospheric reanalyses on pressure levels Martineau, Patrick; Wright, Jonathon S.; Zhu, Nuanliang Earth System Science Data, Vol. 10, Issue 4 https://doi.org/10.5194/essd-10-1925-2018	journal	January 2018
The Polar Amplification Model Intercomparison Project (PAMIP) contribution to CMIP6: investigating the causes and consequences of polar amplification Smith, Doug M.; Screen, James A.; Deser, Clara Geoscientific Model Development, Vol. 12, Issue 3 https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-12-1139-2019	journal	January 2019
Intermittency of Arctic–mid-latitude teleconnections: stratospheric pathway between autumn sea ice and the winter North Atlantic Oscillation Siew, Peter Yu Feng; Li, Camille; Sobolowski, Stefan Pieter Weather and Climate Dynamics, Vol. 1, Issue 1 https://doi.org/10.5194/wcd-1-261-2020	journal	May 2020
The role of Barents–Kara sea ice loss in projected polar vortex changes Kretschmer, Marlene; Zappa, Giuseppe; Shepherd, Theodore G. Weather and Climate Dynamics, Vol. 1, Issue 2 https://doi.org/10.5194/wcd-1-715-2020	journal	January 2020

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Robust but weak winter atmospheric circulation response to future Arctic sea ice loss

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