Past and future ocean warming

Cheng, Lijing; von Schuckmann, Karina; Abraham, John P.; Trenberth, Kevin E.; Mann, Michael E.; Zanna, Laure; England, Matthew H.; Zika, Jan D.; Fasullo, John T.; Yu, Yongqiang; Pan, Yuying; Zhu, Jiang; Newsom, Emily R.; Bronselaer, Ben; Lin, Xiaopei

doi:10.1038/s43017-022-00345-1

Past and future ocean warming

Journal Article · Tue Oct 18 00:00:00 EDT 2022 · Nature Reviews Earth & Environment

DOI:https://doi.org/10.1038/s43017-022-00345-1· OSTI ID:1903572

^[1]; ^[2]; ^[3]; ^[4]; ^[5]; Zanna, Laure ^[6]; ^[7]; ^[7]; ^[8]; Yu, Yongqiang ^[9]; Pan, Yuying ^[10]; ^[10]; ^[6]; Bronselaer, Ben ^[11]; ^[12]

Chinese Academy of Sciences (CAS), Beijing (China); Chinese Academy of Sciences, Qingdao (China); National Center for Atmospheric Research
Mercator Ocean International, Toulouse (France)
Univ. of St. Thomas, Minneapolis, MN (United States)
National Center for Atmospheric Research, Boulder, CO (United States); Univ. of Auckland (New Zealand)
Pennsylvania State Univ., University Park, PA (United States)
New York Univ. (NYU), NY (United States)
Univ. of New South Wales, Sydney, NSW (Australia)
National Center for Atmospheric Research, Boulder, CO (United States)
Chinese Academy of Sciences (CAS), Beijing (China)
Chinese Academy of Sciences (CAS), Beijing (China); Chinese Academy of Sciences, Qingdao (China)
London (United Kingdom)
Ocean Univ. of China, Qingdao (China); Qingdao National Lab. for Marine Science and Technology (China)

Changes in ocean heat content (OHC) provide a measure of ocean warming, with impacts on the Earth system. This Review synthesizes estimates of past and future OHC changes using observations and models. The top 2,000 m of the global ocean has significantly warmed since the 1950s, gaining 351 ± 59.8 ZJ (1 ZJ = 10²¹J) from 1958 to 2019. The rate of warming increased from <5 to ~10 ZJ yr^–1 from the 1960s to the 2010s. Observed area-averaged warming is largest in the Atlantic Ocean and southern oceans at 1.42 ± 0.09 and 1.40 ± 0.09 × 109 J m^–2, respectively, for the upper 2,000 m over 1958–2019. These observed patterns of heat gains are dominated by heat redistribution. Observationally constrained projections suggest that historic ocean warming is irreversible this century, with net warming dependent on the emission scenario. By 2100, projected warming in the top 2,000 m is 2–6 times that observed so far, ranging from 1,030 [839–1,228] ZJ for a low-emission scenario to 1,874 [1,637–2,109] ZJ for a high-emission scenario. The Pacific is projected to be the largest heat reservoir owing to its size, but area-averaged warming remains strongest in the Atlantic and southern oceans. Ocean warming has extensive impacts that pose risks to marine ecosystems and society. Here, the projected changes necessitate a continuation and improvement of observations and models, along with better uncertainty estimation.

View Accepted Manuscript (DOE)

Research Organization:: University Corporation for Atmospheric Research (UCAR), Boulder, CO (United States)

Sponsoring Organization:: USDOE Office of Science (SC), Biological and Environmental Research (BER)

Grant/Contract Number:: SC0022070

OSTI ID:: 1903572

Journal Information:: Nature Reviews Earth & Environment, Journal Name: Nature Reviews Earth & Environment Journal Issue: 11 Vol. 3; ISSN 2662-138X

Publisher:: Springer NatureCopyright Statement

Country of Publication:: United States

Language:: English

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Observational Needs of Sea Surface Temperature O’Carroll, Anne G.; Armstrong, Edward M.; Beggs, Helen M. Frontiers in Marine Science, Vol. 6 https://doi.org/10.3389/fmars.2019.00420	journal	August 2019
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