Model spread in tropical low cloud feedback tied to overturning circulation response to warming

Schiro, Kathleen A.; Su, Hui; Ahmed, Fiaz; Dai, Ni; Singer, Clare E.; Gentine, Pierre; Elsaesser, Gregory S.; Jiang, Jonathan H.; Choi, Yong-Sang; Neelin, J. David

doi:10.1038/s41467-022-34787-4

Title: Model spread in tropical low cloud feedback tied to overturning circulation response to warming

Journal Article · Sat Nov 19 00:00:00 EST 2022 · Nature Communications

DOI:https://doi.org/10.1038/s41467-022-34787-4· OSTI ID:1903484

Schiro, Kathleen A. ^[1];

^[2]; Ahmed, Fiaz ^[3];

^[3];

^[4];

^[5]; Elsaesser, Gregory S. ^[6];

^[4]; Choi, Yong-Sang ^[7]; Neelin, J. David ^[3]

Univ. of Virginia, Charlottesville, VA (United States)
Univ. of California, Los Angeles, CA (United States); The Hong Kong Univ. of Science and Technology (China)
Univ. of California, Los Angeles, CA (United States)
California Institute of Technology (CalTech), Pasadena, CA (United States)
Columbia Univ., New York, NY (United States)
Columbia Univ., New York, NY (United States); NASA Goddard Inst. for Space Studies (GISS), New York, NY (United States)
Ewha Womans Univ., Seoul (South Korea)

Among models participating in the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project phase 6 (CMIP6), here we show that the magnitude of the tropical low cloud feedback, which contributes considerably to uncertainty in estimates of climate sensitivity, is intimately linked to tropical deep convection and its effects on the tropical atmospheric overturning circulation. First, a reduction in tropical ascent area and an increased frequency of heavy precipitation result in high cloud reduction and upper-tropospheric drying, which increases longwave cooling and reduces subsidence weakening, favoring low cloud reduction (Radiation-Subsidence Pathway). Second, increased longwave cooling decreases tropospheric stability, which also reduces subsidence weakening and low cloudiness (Stability-Subsidence Pathway). In summary, greater high cloud reduction and upper-tropospheric drying (negative longwave feedback) lead to a more positive cloud feedback among CMIP6 models by contributing to a greater reduction in low cloudiness (positive shortwave feedback). Varying strengths of the two pathways contribute considerably to the intermodel spread in climate sensitivity.

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Research Organization:: Univ. of California, Los Angeles, CA (United States)

Sponsoring Organization:: USDOE Office of Science (SC), Biological and Environmental Research (BER)

Grant/Contract Number:: SC0021312

OSTI ID:: 1903484

Journal Information:: Nature Communications, Vol. 13, Issue 1; ISSN 2041-1723

Publisher:: Nature Publishing GroupCopyright Statement

Country of Publication:: United States

Language:: English

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