Methodology to Calibrate Fragility Curves Using Limited Real-World Data

Conference · Thu Oct 27 00:00:00 EDT 2022

DOI:https://doi.org/10.36227/techrxiv.19806310.v1· OSTI ID:1902264

Bereta dos Reis, Fernando ^[1]; Royer, Patrick D. ^[1]; Chalishazar, Vishvas H.  ^[1]; Davis, Sarah H. ^[1]; Elizondo, Marcelo A. ^[1]; Dagle, Jeffery E. ^[1]; Nassif, Alexandre ^[2]; Sadikovic, Andrija ^[2]; Ntakou, Elli ^[2]; Soto, Olga ^[2]; Bahramirad, Shay ^[2]

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1. BATTELLE (PACIFIC NW LAB)
2. LUMA Energy

With increasing human dependence on electricity and increasing energy demand, electrical infrastructure has emerged to be one of the most critical services. This is one of the main reasons for making the power grid more resilient to extreme events during which uninterrupted power supply is crucial in keeping the consequences of the extreme event limited. The first step towards making the overall power grid more resilient is to evaluate the probabilities of failure for all assets at risk from the excitation caused by extreme events. Thus, this paper presents the methodology to calibrate fragility curves. The strength of the proposed approach is its ability to calibrate the fragility curves utilizing limited data, which is the most common constraint in carrying out such analyses. This paper describes the calibration of transmission tower fragility curves for Puerto Rico utilizing only damage reports for hurricane Maria. That, combined with Puerto Rico's wind modeling & geographic information system, this study also calibrates fragility curves for transmission towers made with four different construction materials.

• Research Organization: Pacific Northwest National Lab. (PNNL), Richland, WA (United States)
• Sponsoring Organization: USDOE
• DOE Contract Number: AC05-76RL01830
• OSTI ID: 1902264
• Report Number(s): PNNL-SA-168552
• Resource Relation: Conference: IEEE Power & Energy Society General Meeting (PESGM 2022), July 17-21, 2022, Denver, CO
• Country of Publication: United States
• Language: English