Future-proofing photovoltaics module reliability through a unifying predictive modeling framework

Springer, Martin; Jordan, Dirk C.; Barnes, Teresa M.

doi:10.1002/pip.3645

Future-proofing photovoltaics module reliability through a unifying predictive modeling framework

Journal Article · Fri Oct 21 00:00:00 EDT 2022 · Progress in Photovoltaics

DOI:https://doi.org/10.1002/pip.3645· OSTI ID:1899979

^[1]; ^[1]; Barnes, Teresa M. ^[1]

National Renewable Energy Laboratory (NREL), Golden, CO (United States)

Solar energy, especially photovoltaics (PV), plays a significant role in the global energy transition required for decarbonization. Technological advancements in increasing efficiencies coupled with cost reductions through economies of scale made PV a cost-competitive energy source set to exceed the milestone of 1 TW globally deployed capacity in 2022. However, ongoing downward price pressure coupled with increasing service life expectations creates tremendous challenges for reliability engineers in ensuring the safe and reliable operation of PV modules and systems over the anticipated service life. Today's reliability research efforts aim for module lifetimes of up to 50 years. Still, our current tools fall short in accurately assessing degradation mechanisms and failure modes over such extended periods. We argue that the well-established PV reliability learning cycle needs to be accelerated to keep up with the rapid technological advancements and high expectations that are put on PV and its role in the global energy transition. In this article, we explore the evolution of the PV reliability learning cycle and highlight the significance that predictive modeling capabilities will have on future PV module reliability. We propose creating a unifying modeling framework - which once established will enable the holistic assessment of PV module reliability, accelerate the PV reliability learning cycle, and bring us closer to quantitative service life predictions of PV modules.

View Accepted Manuscript (DOE)

Research Organization:: National Renewable Energy Laboratory (NREL), Golden, CO (United States)

Sponsoring Organization:: USDOE Office of Energy Efficiency and Renewable Energy (EERE), Renewable Power Office. Solar Energy Technologies Office

Grant/Contract Number:: AC36-08GO28308

OSTI ID:: 1899979

Report Number(s):: NREL/JA-5K00-82625; MainId:83398; UUID:adccc0da-150b-4a2e-b97f-9ec157c35e73; MainAdminID:67834

Journal Information:: Progress in Photovoltaics, Journal Name: Progress in Photovoltaics Journal Issue: 5 Vol. 31; ISSN 1062-7995

Publisher:: WileyCopyright Statement

Country of Publication:: United States

Language:: English

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