The modeling of risk perception in the use of structural health monitoring information for optimal maintenance decisions

Chadha, Mayank; Ramancha, Mukesh K.; Vega, Manuel A.; Conte, Joel P.; Todd, Michael D.

doi:10.1016/j.ress.2022.108845

The modeling of risk perception in the use of structural health monitoring information for optimal maintenance decisions

Journal Article · Fri Sep 23 00:00:00 EDT 2022 · Reliability Engineering and System Safety

DOI:https://doi.org/10.1016/j.ress.2022.108845· OSTI ID:1890987

Chadha, Mayank ^[1]; ^[1]; ^[2]; Conte, Joel P. ^[1]; ^[1]

Univ. of California, San Diego, CA (United States)
Los Alamos National Lab. (LANL), Los Alamos, NM (United States)

This paper proposes an approach to select a maintenance strategy from a predefined set of choices considering the decision maker’s behavioral risk profile. It is assumed that the damage state is characterized by a continuous state parameter probabilistically inferred from observable sensor data. This work applies an engineering application of consequence-based decision-making incorporating the acceptable risk intensity of the decision-maker, i.e., the decision-maker’s (individual or an organization) valuation of the outcome of a decision, using a risk profile model. The utility of a decision-maker is subjective, and this paper considers the fact that different decision-makers mentally assign a different importance factor (the utility) to the seriousness or urgency to take necessary actions with the increasing intensity of structural damage. The approach herein incorporates a layer of human psychology on selecting appropriate maintenance strategies that not only depend on the posterior distribution of unmeasurable damage state but also consider the behavioral risk profile of the decision-maker. Further, the collective decision-making of an organization consisting of many individuals is also investigated. The approach is exemplified in a case study involving life cycle monitoring of a miter gate, part of a lock system enabling navigation of inland waterways.

View Accepted Manuscript (DOE)

Research Organization:: Los Alamos National Laboratory (LANL), Los Alamos, NM (United States)

Sponsoring Organization:: USDOE; US Army Research Office (ARO)

Grant/Contract Number:: 89233218CNA000001

OSTI ID:: 1890987

Report Number(s):: LA-UR-21-28992

Journal Information:: Reliability Engineering and System Safety, Journal Name: Reliability Engineering and System Safety Vol. 229; ISSN 0951-8320

Publisher:: ElsevierCopyright Statement

Country of Publication:: United States

Language:: English

References (47)

Mitre gates in some recent lock projects in the Netherlands (Stemmtore in einigen neuen Schleusenanlagen in den Niederlanden) Daniel, R. A. Stahlbau, Vol. 69, Issue 12 https://doi.org/10.1002/stab.200003430	journal	December 2000
Value of information: impact of monitoring on decision-making Zonta, Daniele; Glisic, Branko; Adriaenssens, Sigrid Structural Control and Health Monitoring, Vol. 21, Issue 7 https://doi.org/10.1002/stc.1631	journal	December 2013
Automated damage detection in miter gates of navigation locks Eick, Brian A.; Treece, Zachary R.; Spencer, Billie F. Structural Control and Health Monitoring, Vol. 25, Issue 1 https://doi.org/10.1002/stc.2053	journal	June 2017
Advances in prospect theory: Cumulative representation of uncertainty Tversky, Amos; Kahneman, Daniel Journal of Risk and Uncertainty, Vol. 5, Issue 4 https://doi.org/10.1007/BF00122574	journal	October 1992
Assessing uncertainty in extreme events: Applications to risk-based decision making in interdependent infrastructure sectors Barker, Kash; Haimes, Yacov Y. Reliability Engineering & System Safety, Vol. 94, Issue 4 https://doi.org/10.1016/j.ress.2008.09.008	journal	April 2009
Optimal inspection planning for onshore pipelines subject to external corrosion Gomes, Wellison J. S.; Beck, André T.; Haukaas, Terje Reliability Engineering & System Safety, Vol. 118 https://doi.org/10.1016/j.ress.2013.04.011	journal	October 2013
A myopic policy for optimal inspection scheduling for condition based maintenance Lam, Ji Ye Janet; Banjevic, Dragan Reliability Engineering & System Safety, Vol. 144 https://doi.org/10.1016/j.ress.2015.06.009	journal	December 2015
Assessment of diagnostic and prognostic condition indices for efficient and robust maintenance decision-making of systems subject to stress corrosion cracking Huynh, K. T.; Grall, A.; Bérenguer, C. Reliability Engineering & System Safety, Vol. 159 https://doi.org/10.1016/j.ress.2016.11.022	journal	March 2017
A methodology to evaluate risk for supporting decisions involving alignment with organizational values Thekdi, Shital A.; Aven, Terje Reliability Engineering & System Safety, Vol. 172 https://doi.org/10.1016/j.ress.2017.12.001	journal	April 2018
Managing water main breaks in distribution networks––A risk-based decision making Phan, Hieu Chi; Dhar, Ashutosh Sutra; Hu, Guangji Reliability Engineering & System Safety, Vol. 191 https://doi.org/10.1016/j.ress.2019.106581	journal	November 2019
Condition-based probabilistic safety assessment for maintenance decision making regarding a nuclear power plant steam generator undergoing multiple degradation mechanisms Hoseyni, Seyed Mojtaba; Di Maio, Francesco; Zio, Enrico Reliability Engineering & System Safety, Vol. 191 https://doi.org/10.1016/j.ress.2019.106583	journal	November 2019
Optimal maintenance policy considering imperfect repairs and non-constant probabilities of inspection errors Zhang, Fengxia; Shen, Jingyuan; Ma, Yizhong Reliability Engineering & System Safety, Vol. 193 https://doi.org/10.1016/j.ress.2019.106615	journal	January 2020
Optimal maintenance policies for coherent systems with multi-type components Hashemi, M.; Asadi, M.; Zarezadeh, S. Reliability Engineering & System Safety, Vol. 195 https://doi.org/10.1016/j.ress.2019.106674	journal	March 2020
Optimizing inspection routes in pipeline networks Chen, Thomas Ying-Jeh; Riley, Connor Thomas; Van Hentenryck, Pascal Reliability Engineering & System Safety, Vol. 195 https://doi.org/10.1016/j.ress.2019.106700	journal	March 2020
Selective maintenance optimization for multi-state systems considering stochastically dependent components and stochastic imperfect maintenance actions Shahraki, Ameneh Forouzandeh; Yadav, Om Prakash; Vogiatzis, Chrysafis Reliability Engineering & System Safety, Vol. 196 https://doi.org/10.1016/j.ress.2019.106738	journal	April 2020
Dynamic opportunistic maintenance planning for multi-component redundant systems with various types of opportunities Vu, Hai Canh; Do, Phuc; Fouladirad, Mitra Reliability Engineering & System Safety, Vol. 198 https://doi.org/10.1016/j.ress.2020.106854	journal	June 2020
A value-based approach to optimizing long-term maintenance plans for a multi-asset k-out-of-N system Petchrompo, Sanyapong; Li, Hao; Erguido, Asier Reliability Engineering & System Safety, Vol. 200 https://doi.org/10.1016/j.ress.2020.106924	journal	August 2020
Optimal inspection models with minimal repair Ito, Kodo; Mizutani, Satoshi; Nakagawa, Toshio Reliability Engineering & System Safety, Vol. 201 https://doi.org/10.1016/j.ress.2020.106946	journal	September 2020
Condition-based maintenance optimization for multi-component systems subject to a system reliability requirement Shi, Yue; Zhu, Weihang; Xiang, Yisha Reliability Engineering & System Safety, Vol. 202 https://doi.org/10.1016/j.ress.2020.107042	journal	October 2020
Risk-based maintenance planning of offshore wind turbine farms Yeter, B.; Garbatov, Y.; Guedes Soares, C. Reliability Engineering & System Safety, Vol. 202 https://doi.org/10.1016/j.ress.2020.107062	journal	October 2020
A heuristic policy for maintaining multiple multi-state systems Zhang, Mimi Reliability Engineering & System Safety, Vol. 203 https://doi.org/10.1016/j.ress.2020.107081	journal	November 2020
Optimization of an aperiodic sequential inspection and condition-based maintenance policy driven by value of information Fauriat, William; Zio, Enrico Reliability Engineering & System Safety, Vol. 204 https://doi.org/10.1016/j.ress.2020.107133	journal	December 2020
Optimal maintenance decisions for deteriorating quoin blocks in miter gates subject to uncertainty in the condition rating protocol Vega, Manuel A.; Hu, Zhen; Todd, Michael D. Reliability Engineering & System Safety, Vol. 204 https://doi.org/10.1016/j.ress.2020.107147	journal	December 2020
Optimal preventive maintenance for repairable weighted k-out-of-n systems Hamdan, K.; Tavangar, M.; Asadi, M. Reliability Engineering & System Safety, Vol. 205 https://doi.org/10.1016/j.ress.2020.107267	journal	January 2021
Optimization of maintenance strategies for railway track-bed considering probabilistic degradation models and different reliability levels Bressi, Sara; Santos, João; Losa, Massimo Reliability Engineering & System Safety, Vol. 207 https://doi.org/10.1016/j.ress.2020.107359	journal	March 2021
An adaptive predictive maintenance model for repairable deteriorating systems using inverse Gaussian degradation process Huynh, K. T. Reliability Engineering & System Safety, Vol. 213 https://doi.org/10.1016/j.ress.2021.107695	journal	September 2021
Optimal inspections and mission abort policies for multistate systems Levitin, Gregory; Finkelstein, Maxim; Xiang, Yanping Reliability Engineering & System Safety, Vol. 214 https://doi.org/10.1016/j.ress.2021.107700	journal	October 2021
Predictive maintenance enabled by machine learning: Use cases and challenges in the automotive industry Theissler, Andreas; Pérez-Velázquez, Judith; Kettelgerdes, Marcel Reliability Engineering & System Safety, Vol. 215 https://doi.org/10.1016/j.ress.2021.107864	journal	November 2021
Optimal inspection of binary systems via Value of Information analysis Lin, Chaochao; Song, Junho; Pozzi, Matteo Reliability Engineering & System Safety, Vol. 217 https://doi.org/10.1016/j.ress.2021.107944	journal	January 2022
Risk based inspection planning for structural systems Straub, Daniel; Faber, Michael Havbro Structural Safety, Vol. 27, Issue 4 https://doi.org/10.1016/j.strusafe.2005.04.001	journal	October 2005
Value of information analysis with structural reliability methods Straub, Daniel Structural Safety, Vol. 49 https://doi.org/10.1016/j.strusafe.2013.08.006	journal	July 2014
The Life Profitability Method (LPM): A financial approach to engineering decisions Gardoni, Paolo; Guevara-Lopez, Fausto; Contento, Alessandro Structural Safety, Vol. 63 https://doi.org/10.1016/j.strusafe.2016.06.006	journal	November 2016
A probabilistic optimal sensor design approach for structural health monitoring using risk-weighted f-divergence Yang, Yichao; Chadha, Mayank; Hu, Zhen Mechanical Systems and Signal Processing, Vol. 161 https://doi.org/10.1016/j.ymssp.2021.107920	journal	December 2021
Bayesian updating and identifiability assessment of nonlinear finite element models Ramancha, Mukesh K.; Astroza, Rodrigo; Madarshahian, Ramin Mechanical Systems and Signal Processing, Vol. 167 https://doi.org/10.1016/j.ymssp.2021.108517	journal	March 2022
An optimal sensor placement design framework for structural health monitoring using Bayes risk Yang, Yichao; Chadha, Mayank; Hu, Zhen Mechanical Systems and Signal Processing, Vol. 168 https://doi.org/10.1016/j.ymssp.2021.108618	journal	April 2022
Accounting for model form uncertainty in Bayesian calibration of linear dynamic systems Ramancha, Mukesh K.; Conte, Joel P.; Parno, Matthew D. Mechanical Systems and Signal Processing, Vol. 171 https://doi.org/10.1016/j.ymssp.2022.108871	journal	May 2022
Elimination by aspects: A theory of choice. Tversky, Amos Psychological Review, Vol. 79, Issue 4 https://doi.org/10.1037/h0032955	journal	January 1972
Navigation Locks: Navigation Lock Gates and Valves Richardson, George C. Journal of the Waterways and Harbors Division, Vol. 90, Issue 1 https://doi.org/10.1061/JWHEAU.0000363	journal	February 1964
Feasibility of retrofitting existing miter-type lock gates with discontinuous contact blocks Eick, Brian A.; Smith, Matthew D.; Fillmore, Travis B. Journal of Structural Integrity and Maintenance, Vol. 4, Issue 4 https://doi.org/10.1080/24705314.2019.1657617	journal	October 2019
The Utility of Wealth Markowitz, Harry Journal of Political Economy, Vol. 60, Issue 2 https://doi.org/10.1086/257177	journal	April 1952
Was Three Mile Island a ‘Normal Accident’? Hopkins, Andrew Journal of Contingencies and Crisis Management, Vol. 9, Issue 2 https://doi.org/10.1111/1468-5973.00155	journal	June 2001
On the Value of Monitoring Information for the Structural Integrity and Risk Management Thöns, Sebastian Computer-Aided Civil and Infrastructure Engineering, Vol. 33, Issue 1 https://doi.org/10.1111/mice.12332	journal	November 2017
On the Treatment of Uncertainties and Probabilities in Engineering Decision Analysis Faber, Michael Havbro Journal of Offshore Mechanics and Arctic Engineering, Vol. 127, Issue 3 https://doi.org/10.1115/1.1951776	journal	March 2005
Judgment under Uncertainty: Heuristics and Biases Tversky, A.; Kahneman, D. Science, Vol. 185, Issue 4157 https://doi.org/10.1126/science.185.4157.1124	journal	September 1974
An alternative quantification of the value of information in structural health monitoring Chadha, Mayank; Hu, Zhen; Todd, Michael D. Structural Health Monitoring, Vol. 21, Issue 1 https://doi.org/10.1177/14759217211028439	journal	July 2021
Prospect Theory: An Analysis of Decision under Risk Kahneman, Daniel; Tversky, Amos Econometrica, Vol. 47, Issue 2 https://doi.org/10.2307/1914185	journal	March 1979
Quantifying the value of monitoring for post-earthquake emergency management of bridges Limongelli, Maria Pina; Omenzetter, Piotr; Yazgan, Ufuk IABSE Symposium, Vancouver 2017: Engineering the Future https://doi.org/10.2749/222137817822208852	conference	January 2017

Similar Records

Environmental priorities and individual differences: Metropolitan Cleveland

Journal Article · Wed Nov 30 23:00:00 EST 1994 · Environmental Professional; (United States) · OSTI ID:6686251

The perception of technological risks: A literature review

Journal Article · Mon Aug 01 00:00:00 EDT 1983 · Technol. Forecasting Social Change; (United States) · OSTI ID:5093754

A game-theoretic approach to nuclear fuel cycle transition analysis under uncertainty

Journal Article · Mon Oct 30 00:00:00 EDT 2023 · Annals of Nuclear Energy · OSTI ID:1997828

Related Subjects

42 ENGINEERING
Bayesian inference
behavioral economics
expected utility theory
miter gates
risk profile
structural health monitoring

The modeling of risk perception in the use of structural health monitoring information for optimal maintenance decisions

Citation Formats

References (47)

Similar Records

Related Subjects