The role of negative emissions in meeting China’s 2060 carbon neutrality goal

Fuhrman, Jay G.; Clarens, Andres F.; McJeon, Haewon C.; Patel, Pralit L.; Ou, Yang; Doney, Scott C.; Shobe, William M.; Pradhan, Shreekar

doi:10.1093/oxfclm/kgab004

The role of negative emissions in meeting China’s 2060 carbon neutrality goal

Journal Article · Wed May 26 00:00:00 EDT 2021 · Oxford Open Climate Change

DOI:https://doi.org/10.1093/oxfclm/kgab004· OSTI ID:1890475

^[1]; Clarens, Andres F. ^[2]; ^[3]; Patel, Pralit L. ^[3]; ^[3]; ^[2]; Shobe, William M. ^[2]; Pradhan, Shreekar ^[2]

Univ. of Virginia, Charlottesville, VA (United States); Univ. of Maryland, College Park, MD (United States); Pacific Northwest National Lab. (PNNL), Richland, WA (United States)
Univ. of Virginia, Charlottesville, VA (United States)
Univ. of Maryland, College Park, MD (United States); Pacific Northwest National Lab. (PNNL), Richland, WA (United States)

China’s pledge to reach carbon neutrality before 2060 is an ambitious goal and could provide the world with much-needed leadership on how to limit warming to +1.5°C warming above preindustrial levels by the end of the century. But the pathways that would achieve net zero by 2060 are still unclear, including the role of negative emissions technologies. We use the Global Change Analysis Model to simulate how negative emissions technologies, in general, and direct air capture (DAC) in particular, could contribute to China’s meeting this target. Our results show that negative emissions could play a large role, offsetting on the order of 3 GtCO₂ per year from difficult-to-mitigate sectors, such as freight transportation and heavy industry. This includes up to a 1.6 GtCO₂ per year contribution from DAC, constituting up to 60% of total projected negative emissions in China. But DAC, like bioenergy with carbon capture and storage and afforestation, has not yet been demonstrated anywhere approaching the scales required to meaningfully contribute to climate mitigation. Deploying NETs at these scales will have widespread impacts on financial systems and natural resources, such as water, land and energy in China.

View Accepted Manuscript (DOE)

Research Organization:: Pacific Northwest National Laboratory (PNNL), Richland, WA (United States)

Sponsoring Organization:: USDOE

Grant/Contract Number:: AC05-76RL01830

OSTI ID:: 1890475

Report Number(s):: PNNL-ACT-SA-10518

Journal Information:: Oxford Open Climate Change, Journal Name: Oxford Open Climate Change Journal Issue: 1 Vol. 1; ISSN 2634-4068

Publisher:: Oxford University PressCopyright Statement

Country of Publication:: United States

Language:: English

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