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Generalized Bayesian Framework for Evaluation of Integral Benchmark Experiments

Conference ·
OSTI ID:1886588
 [1];  [1];  [2];  [1];  [1];  [1]
  1. Oak Ridge National Lab. (ORNL), Oak Ridge, TN (United States)
  2. Purdue Univ., West Lafayette, IN (United States)
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A recently published generalized Bayesian optimization framework has provided a way to retract any or all of the three common assumptions underlying the conventional Generalized Linear Least Squares (GLLS) optimization method based on the concepts introduced in reference two. These assumptions are: 1. Perfection: The model used for data evaluation and the prior probability distribution function (PDF) of generalized* data are perfect; 2. Normality: The prior and posterior PDF are normal; and 3. Linearity: The model is linear. In this work we outline how the framework in 1 could be directly adopted for improved evaluation of nuclear criticality integral benchmark experiments (IBEs) by: 1. Removing the first assumption alone by utilizing the concept of imperfections introduced in 1 to enable evaluation in the presence of discrepancies between the data and model or of missing covariance information by a GLLS method that will be seen as a generalization of the conventional GLLS method employed by the TSURFER code, and by 2. Removing the remaining two assumptions by implement- ing a Markov Chain Monte Carlo method for computation of the posterior PDF in the SAMPLER code, where TSURFER and SAMPLER are the uncertainty quantification (UQ) codes for IBEs in the SCALE code system based on the GLLS, and the stochastic method, respectively.
Research Organization:
Oak Ridge National Laboratory (ORNL), Oak Ridge, TN (United States)
Sponsoring Organization:
USDOE National Nuclear Security Administration (NNSA), Nuclear Criticality Safety Program (NCSP)
DOE Contract Number:
AC05-00OR22725
OSTI ID:
1886588
Country of Publication:
United States
Language:
English

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Related Subjects

73 NUCLEAR PHYSICS AND RADIATION PHYSICS
97 MATHEMATICS AND COMPUTING
Generalized Linear Least Squares (GLIS)
Nuclear Criticality Safety Program (NCSP)
SAMPLER
TSURFER
nuclear data