Report to the Ranking Minority Member, Committee on Commerce, House of Representatives. Global warming: Limitations of general circulation models and costs of modeling efforts

Technical Report · Sat Jul 01 04:00:00 EDT 1995

OSTI ID:188472

Increasingly, emissions of heat-trapping greenhouse gases from energy production, industry, transporation, agriculture, and other human activities are being concentrated in the earth`s atmosphere. During the Forum on Global Climate Change Modeling, held in October 1994, scientists agreed that the buildup of these gases is creating an enhanced greenhouse effect that will lead to global warming. Anticipating that costly actions may be needed to avoid or respond to global warming, policymakers are seeking accurate information about possible future climatic changes. The most highly developed tools now available to project climatic changes are complex computer models called general circulation models (GCM). Given the pivotal roll that GCMs could play in shaping the response of U.S. policymakers to possible future climatic changes, the factors limiting the accuracy of GCMs` estimates of future climatic changes and federal expenditures for GCMs from fiscal years 1992 through 1994 are identified.

• Research Organization: General Accounting Office, Washington, DC (United States)
• OSTI ID: 188472
• Report Number(s): GAO/RCED--95-164; B--261119
• Country of Publication: United States
• Language: English

Related Subjects

29 ENERGY PLANNING, POLICY, AND ECONOMY
54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES
ACCURACY
COMPARATIVE EVALUATIONS
COMPUTERIZED SIMULATION
EARTH ATMOSPHERE
GENERAL CIRCULATION MODELS
GREENHOUSE EFFECT
PROBABILISTIC ESTIMATION
TECHNOLOGY ASSESSMENT