Evaluating Uncertainty and Modes of Variability for Antarctic Atmospheric Rivers

Shields, Christine A.; Wille, Jonathan D.; Marquardt Collow, Allison B.; Maclennan, Michelle; Gorodetskaya, Irina V.

doi:10.1029/2022GL099577

Title: Evaluating Uncertainty and Modes of Variability for Antarctic Atmospheric Rivers

Journal Article · Fri Aug 26 00:00:00 EDT 2022 · Geophysical Research Letters

DOI:https://doi.org/10.1029/2022GL099577· OSTI ID:1883633

^[1];

^[2]; Marquardt Collow, Allison B. ^[3];

^[4]; Gorodetskaya, Irina V. ^[5]

Climate and Global Dynamics Laboratory National Center for Atmospheric Research Boulder CO USA
Institut des Géosciences de l'Environnement CNRS/UGA/IRD/G‐INP Saint Martin d'Hères France
University of Maryland Baltimore County Baltimore MD USA, Global Modeling and Assimilation Office NASA Goddard Space Flight Center Greenbelt MD USA
Department of Atmospheric and Oceanic Science University of Colorado Boulder Boulder CO USA
Department of Physics CESAM—Centre for Environmental and Marine Studies University of Aveiro Aveiro Portugal

Abstract Antarctic atmospheric rivers (ARs) are driven by their synoptic environments and lead to profound and varying impacts along the coastlines and over the continent. The definition and detection of ARs over Antarctica accounts for large uncertainty in AR metrics, and consequently, impacts quantification. We find that Antarctic‐specific detection tools consistently capture the AR footprint inland over ice sheets, whereas most global detection tools do not. Large‐scale synoptic environments and associated ARs, however, are broadly consistent across detection tools. Using data from the Atmospheric River Tracking Method Intercomparison Project and global reanalyses, we quantify the uncertainty in Antarctic AR metrics and evaluate large‐scale environments in the context of decadal and interannual modes of variability. The Antarctic western hemisphere has stronger connections to both decadal and interannual modes of variability compared to East Antarctica, and the Indian Ocean Dipole’s influence on Antarctic ARs is stronger while in phase with El Nino Southern Oscillation.

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Research Organization:: University Corporation for Atmospheric Research (UCAR), Boulder, CO (United States)

Sponsoring Organization:: USDOE Office of Science (SC), Biological and Environmental Research (BER)

Grant/Contract Number:: SC0022070

OSTI ID:: 1883633

Alternate ID(s):: OSTI ID: 1884362; OSTI ID: 1891499

Journal Information:: Geophysical Research Letters, Journal Name: Geophysical Research Letters Vol. 49 Journal Issue: 16; ISSN 0094-8276

Publisher:: American Geophysical Union (AGU)Copyright Statement

Country of Publication:: United States

Language:: English

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