Coffee supply chain planning under climate change

Zhou, Rui; Wang, Yaoping; Jin, Mingzhou; Mao, Jiafu; Zheng, Xu

doi:10.1080/1943815x.2022.2103570

Coffee supply chain planning under climate change

Journal Article · Fri Jul 29 00:00:00 EDT 2022 · Journal of Integrative Environmental Sciences (JIES)

DOI:https://doi.org/10.1080/1943815x.2022.2103570· OSTI ID:1883713

Zhou, Rui ^[1]; Wang, Yaoping ^[1]; ^[1]; ^[2]; Zheng, Xu ^[1]

Univ. of Tennessee, Knoxville, TN (United States)
Oak Ridge National Lab. (ORNL), Oak Ridge, TN (United States)

The growing demand but uncertain supply makes the sustainability of the coffee industry a shared concern for all participants along the coffee supply chain. This study proposed a decision-making model that comprises the cultivation management, including shade management and annual agriculture management, and the supply chain logistics. A two-stage stochastic program is presented and used within a rolling horizon scheme that periodically updates input data information to deal with uncertainty associated with future climate scenarios. The program minimizes the total expected cost of the entire supply chain of arabica coffee. The study applied the model to the real case study of arabica coffee bean supply to the U.S. market, trying to answer whether arabica coffee supply can meet the U.S. demand from 2022 to 2050 and how to best mitigate any shortage through corporate-farmer partnerships. The results show that the coffee supply will have a 3% shortage in the future; medium-level shade management and more irrigation and fertilization are possible mitigation strategies. These results demonstrate the need for all participants to adopt suitable technologies for the sustainability of global coffee supply chains together.

View Accepted Manuscript (DOE)

Research Organization:: Oak Ridge National Laboratory (ORNL), Oak Ridge, TN (United States)

Sponsoring Organization:: National Science Foundation (NSF); USDOE

Grant/Contract Number:: AC05-00OR22725

OSTI ID:: 1883713

Journal Information:: Journal of Integrative Environmental Sciences (JIES), Journal Name: Journal of Integrative Environmental Sciences (JIES) Journal Issue: 1 Vol. 19; ISSN 1943-815X

Publisher:: Taylor & FrancisCopyright Statement

Country of Publication:: United States

Language:: English

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54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES
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