Projecting end-of-century climate extremes and their impacts on the hydrology of a representative California watershed

Maina, Fadji Z.; Rhoades, Alan; Siirila-Woodburn, Erica R.; Dennedy-Frank, Peter-James

doi:10.5194/hess-26-3589-2022

Title: Projecting end-of-century climate extremes and their impacts on the hydrology of a representative California watershed

Journal Article · Wed Jul 13 00:00:00 EDT 2022 · Hydrology and Earth System Sciences (Online)

DOI:https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-26-3589-2022· OSTI ID:1875924

Maina, Fadji Z.;

; Siirila-Woodburn, Erica R.; Dennedy-Frank, Peter-James

Abstract. In California, it is essential to understand the evolution of water resources in response to a changing climate to sustain its economy and agriculture and to build resilient communities. Although extreme conditions have characterized the historical hydroclimate of California, climate change will likely intensify hydroclimatic extremes by the end of the century (EoC). However, few studies have investigated the impacts of EoC extremes on watershed hydrology. We use cutting-edge global climate and integrated hydrologic models to simulate EoC extremes and their effects on the water-energy balance. We assess the impacts of projected driest, median, and wettest water years under Representative Concentration Pathway (RCP) 8.5 on the hydrodynamics of the Cosumnes River basin. Substantial changes to annual average temperature (>+2.5 ∘C) and precipitation (>+38 %) will characterize the EoC extreme water years compared to their historical counterparts. A shift in the dominant form of precipitation, mostly in the form of rain, is projected to fall earlier. These changes reduce snowpack by more than 90 %, increase peak surface water and groundwater storages up to 75 % and 23 %, respectively, and drive the timing of peak storage to occur earlier in the year. Because EoC temperatures and soil moisture are high, both potential and actual evapotranspiration (ET) increase. The latter, along with the lack of snowmelt in the warm EoC, causes surface water and groundwater storages to significantly decrease in summer, with groundwater showing the highest rates of decrease. These changes result in more ephemeral EoC streams with more focused flow and increased storage in the mainstem of the river network during the summer.

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Research Organization:: Lawrence Berkeley National Laboratory (LBNL), Berkeley, CA (United States)

Sponsoring Organization:: USDOE Office of Science (SC), Biological and Environmental Research (BER); USDOE Laboratory Directed Research and Development (LDRD) Program

Grant/Contract Number:: AC02-05CH11231; SC0016605

OSTI ID:: 1875924

Alternate ID(s):: OSTI ID: 1895346

Journal Information:: Hydrology and Earth System Sciences (Online), Journal Name: Hydrology and Earth System Sciences (Online) Vol. 26 Journal Issue: 13; ISSN 1607-7938

Publisher:: Copernicus GmbHCopyright Statement

Country of Publication:: Germany

Language:: English

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54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES

Title: Projecting end-of-century climate extremes and their impacts on the hydrology of a representative California watershed

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