Evaluation of Extreme Weather Impacts on Utility-scale Photovoltaic Plant Performance in the United States

Jackson, Nicole D.; Gunda, Thushara

doi:10.1016/j.apenergy.2021.117508

Evaluation of Extreme Weather Impacts on Utility-scale Photovoltaic Plant Performance in the United States

Journal Article · Mon Aug 16 04:00:00 EDT 2021 · Applied Energy

DOI:https://doi.org/10.1016/j.apenergy.2021.117508· OSTI ID:1820425

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Sandia National Lab. (SNL-NM), Albuquerque, NM (United States)

The global energy system is undergoing significant changes, including a shift in energy generating technologies to more renewable energy sources. However, the dependence of renewable energy sources on local environmental conditions could also increase disruptions in service through exposures to compound, extreme weather events. By fusing three diverse datasets (operations and maintenance tickets, weather data, and production data), this analysis presents a novel methodology to identify and evaluate performance impacts arising from extreme weather events across diverse geographical regions. Text analysis of maintenance tickets identified snow, hurricanes, and storms as the leading extreme weather events affecting photovoltaic plants in the United States. Statistical techniques and machine learning were then implemented to identify the magnitude and variability of these extreme weather impacts on site performance. Impacts varied between event and non-event days, with snow events causing the greatest reductions in performance (54.5%), followed by hurricanes (12.6%) and storms (1.1%). Machine learning analysis identified key features in determining if a day is categorized as low performing, such as low irradiance, geographic location, weather features, and site size. The analysis improves our understanding of compound, extreme weather event impacts on photovoltaic systems, which can inform planning activities, especially as the industry continues to expand into new geographic and climatic regions around the world.

View Accepted Manuscript (DOE)

Research Organization:: Sandia National Laboratories (SNL-NM), Albuquerque, NM (United States)

Sponsoring Organization:: USDOE Office of Energy Efficiency and Renewable Energy (EERE), Renewable Power Office. Solar Energy Technologies Office; USDOE National Nuclear Security Administration (NNSA)

Grant/Contract Number:: NA0003525

OSTI ID:: 1820425

Alternate ID(s):: OSTI ID: 1831579
OSTI ID: 1865217
OSTI ID: 23187750

Report Number(s):: SAND--2021-10751J; 699113

Journal Information:: Applied Energy, Journal Name: Applied Energy Vol. 302; ISSN 0306-2619

Publisher:: ElsevierCopyright Statement

Country of Publication:: United States

Language:: English

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