Impact of solar geoengineering on temperatures over the Indonesian Maritime Continent

Kuswanto, Heri; Kravitz, Ben; Miftahurrohmah, Brina; Fauzi, Fatkhurokhman; Sopahaluwaken, Ardhasena; Moore, John

doi:10.1002/joc.7391

Title: Impact of solar geoengineering on temperatures over the Indonesian Maritime Continent

Journal Article · Wed Sep 29 00:00:00 EDT 2021 · International Journal of Climatology

DOI:https://doi.org/10.1002/joc.7391· OSTI ID:1864143

^[1];

^[2]; Miftahurrohmah, Brina ^[3]; Fauzi, Fatkhurokhman ^[4]; Sopahaluwaken, Ardhasena ^[5]; Moore, John ^[6]

Institut Teknologi Sepuluh Nopember, Surabaya (Indonesia). Centre for Disaster Mitigation and Climate Change; Institut Teknologi Sepuluh Nopember, Surabaya (Indonesia)
Indiana Univ., Bloomington, IN (United States); Pacific Northwest National Lab. (PNNL), Richland, WA (United States)
Universitas International Semen Indonesia (UISI), Gresik (Indonesia)
Universitas Muhammadiyah Semarang (Indonesia)
Agency for Meteorology, Climatology and Geophysics (BMKG), Jakarta (Indonesia)
Beijing Normal University (BNU), Beijing (China)

Climate change has been projected to increase the intensity and magnitude of extreme temperature in Indonesia. Solar radiation management (SRM) has been proposed as a strategy to temporarily combat global warming, buying time for negative emissions. Though the global impacts of SRM have been extensively studied in recent years, regional impacts, especially in the tropics, have received much less attention. This paper investigates the potential stratospheric sulfate aerosol geoengineering to modify mean and extreme temperature, as well as the relative humidity and wet bulb temperature (WBT) change over Indonesian Maritime Continent (IMC) based on simulations from three different earth system models. We applied statistical downscaling and corrected the bias of model output to reproduce historical temperatures and relative humidity over IMC. We compared SRM as specified by the Geoengineering Model Intercomparison Project (GeoMIP) G4 experiment – 5 Tg of SO₂ into the lower stratosphere between 2020 and 2069 – concurrent with the RCP4.5 emissions scenario. SRM is able to significantly reduce the temperature means and extremes, and although differences in magnitude of response and spatial pattern occur, there is a generally consistent response. Additionally, the spatial response of changes forced by RCP4.5 scenario and SRM impact is notably heterogeneous in the archipelago, highlighting uncertainties that would be critical in assessing socio-economic consequences of both doing, and not doing SRM. In general, SRM has bigger impacts in reducing temperatures over land than oceans, and the southern monsoon region shows more variability. SRM is also effective at reducing the likelihood of WBT > 27OC events compared to RCP4.5 after some years of SRM deployment as well as during the post-termination period of SRM. Regional downscaling may be an effective tool in obtaining policy-relevant information about local effects of different future scenarios involving SRM.

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Research Organization:: Pacific Northwest National Lab. (PNNL), Richland, WA (United States)

Sponsoring Organization:: USDOE

Grant/Contract Number:: AC05-76RL01830

OSTI ID:: 1864143

Report Number(s):: PNNL-SA-161429

Journal Information:: International Journal of Climatology, Vol. 42, Issue 5; ISSN 0899-8418

Publisher:: Royal Meteorological SocietyCopyright Statement

Country of Publication:: United States

Language:: English

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Title: Impact of solar geoengineering on temperatures over the Indonesian Maritime Continent

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