Climate change impacts on the energy system: a model comparison

Zapata, Victhalia; Gernaat, David J.; Yalew, Seleshi G.; Santos da Silva, Silvia R.; Iyer, Gokul; Hejazi, Mohamad; van Vuuren, Detlef P.

doi:10.1088/1748-9326/ac5141

Climate change impacts on the energy system: a model comparison

Journal Article · Mon Feb 28 00:00:00 EST 2022 · Environmental Research Letters

DOI:https://doi.org/10.1088/1748-9326/ac5141· OSTI ID:1862669

^[1]; Gernaat, David J. ^[2]; Yalew, Seleshi G. ^[3]; ^[4]; Iyer, Gokul ^[5]; Hejazi, Mohamad ^[6]; van Vuuren, Detlef P. ^[2]

Utrecht University (Netherlands)
Utrecht University (Netherlands); PBL Netherlands Environmental Assessment Agency, The Hague (Netherlands)
IHE Delft Institute for Water Education (Netherlands)
Univ. of Maryland, College Park, MD (United States); Pacific Northwest National Lab. (PNNL), College Park, MD (United States); George Mason Univ., Fairfax, VA (United States)
Pacific Northwest National Lab. (PNNL), College Park, MD (United States)
Pacific Northwest National Lab. (PNNL), College Park, MD (United States); King Abdullah Petroleum Studies and Research Center (KAPSARC) (Saudi Arabia)

Increasing renewable energy use is an essential strategy for mitigating climate change. Nevertheless, the sensitivity of renewable energy to climatic conditions means that the energy system’s vulnerability to climate change can also become larger. In this research, we used two integrated assessment models and data from four climate models to analyse climate change impacts on primary energy use at a global and regional scale under a low-level (RCP2.6) and a medium-level (RCP6.0) climate change scenario. The impacts are analysed on the energy system focusing on four renewable sources (wind, solar, hydropower, and biomass). Globally, small climate impacts on renewable primary energy use are found in both models (5% for RCP2.6 and 6% for RCP6.0). These impacts lead to a decrease in the use of fossil sources for most regions, especially for North America and Europe under the RCP60 scenario. Overall, IMAGE and GCAM provide a similar signal impact response for most regions. E.g. in Asia (excluding China and India), climate change induces an increase in wind and hydropower use under the RCP6.0 scenarios; however, for India, a decrease in solar energy use can be expected under both scenarios and models.

View Accepted Manuscript (DOE)

Research Organization:: Pacific Northwest National Laboratory (PNNL), Richland, WA (United States)

Sponsoring Organization:: European Research Council (ERC); USDOE

Grant/Contract Number:: AC05-76RL01830

OSTI ID:: 1862669

Report Number(s):: PNNL-SA-158893

Journal Information:: Environmental Research Letters, Journal Name: Environmental Research Letters Journal Issue: 3 Vol. 17; ISSN 1748-9326

Publisher:: IOP PublishingCopyright Statement

Country of Publication:: United States

Language:: English

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Related Subjects

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES
RCP2.6
RCP6.0
SSP2
climate impacts
energy models
energy systems
renewable energies

Climate change impacts on the energy system: a model comparison

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