Choices in land representation materially affect modeled biofuel carbon intensity estimates

Plevin, Richard J.; Jones, Jason; Kyle, Page; Levy, Aaron W.; Shell, Michael J.; Tanner, Daniel J.

doi:10.1016/j.jclepro.2022.131477

Choices in land representation materially affect modeled biofuel carbon intensity estimates

Journal Article · Tue Mar 22 00:00:00 EDT 2022 · Journal of Cleaner Production

DOI:https://doi.org/10.1016/j.jclepro.2022.131477· OSTI ID:1861889

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Univ. of California, Berkeley, CA (United States)
ICF International Inc., Fairfax, VA (United States)
Pacific Northwest National Lab. (PNNL), Richland, WA (United States)
US Environmental Protection Agency (EPA), Washington, DC (United States)

Estimates of biofuel carbon intensity are uncertain and depend on modeled land use change (LUC) emissions. While analysts have focused on economic and agronomic assumptions affecting the quantity of land converted, researchers have paid less attention to how models classify land into broad categories and designate some categories as ineligible for LUC. To explore the effect of these land representation attributes, we use three versions of a global human and Earth systems model, GCAM, and compute the “carbon intensity of land-use change” (CI-LUC) from increased U.S. corn ethanol production. We consider uncertainty in model parameters along with the choice of land representation and find the latter is one of the most influential parameters on estimated CI-LUC. A version of the model that protects 90% of non-commercial land reduced estimated CI-LUC by an average of 32% across Monte Carlo trials compared to our baseline model. Another version that mimics the GTAP-BIO-ADV land representation, which protects all non-commercial land, reduced CI-LUC by an average of 19%. The results of this experiment suggest that analyses of LUC that exclude non-commercial land categories or assume more land is protected than empirically justified underestimate biofuel induced LUC GHG emissions.

View Accepted Manuscript (DOE)

Research Organization:: Pacific Northwest National Laboratory (PNNL), Richland, WA (United States)

Sponsoring Organization:: Environmental Protection Agency (EPA); USDOE

Grant/Contract Number:: AC05-76RL01830

OSTI ID:: 1861889

Report Number(s):: PNNL-SA-163646

Journal Information:: Journal of Cleaner Production, Journal Name: Journal of Cleaner Production Journal Issue: 2022 Vol. 349; ISSN 0959-6526

Publisher:: ElsevierCopyright Statement

Country of Publication:: United States

Language:: English

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Choices in land representation materially affect modeled biofuel carbon intensity estimates

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