Agent-based modeling of supply disruptions in the global rare earths market

Riddle, Matthew E.; Tatara, Eric; Olson, Charles; Smith, Braeton J.; Bennett Irion, Allison; Harker, Braden; Pineault, David; Alonso, Elisa; Graziano, Diane J.

doi:10.1016/j.resconrec.2020.105193

Title: Agent-based modeling of supply disruptions in the global rare earths market

Journal Article · Tue Oct 06 00:00:00 EDT 2020 · Resources, Conservation and Recycling

DOI:https://doi.org/10.1016/j.resconrec.2020.105193· OSTI ID:1854533

Riddle, Matthew E. ^[1]; Tatara, Eric ^[1]; Olson, Charles ^[1]; Smith, Braeton J. ^[1]; Bennett Irion, Allison ^[1]; Harker, Braden ^[2]; Pineault, David ^[2]; Alonso, Elisa ^[2]; Graziano, Diane J. ^[1]

Argonne National Lab. (ANL), Argonne, IL (United States)
US Dept. of Defense, Fort Belvoir, VA (United States). Defense Logistics Agency

Several independent assessments have identified rare earth elements (REEs) as critical materials, notably neodymium (Nd), praseodymium (Pr), and dysprosium (Dy) used in permanent magnets. Factors affecting their criticality include expected growth in demand arising from their unique performance-enhancing properties in consumer, energy, and military applications and the supply risk associated with China's dominance in their production. We demonstrate the use of Argonne's Global Critical Materials (GCMat) agent-based model to explore the possible consequences to REE market dynamics of different types of regional supply disruptions including a temporary loss of production, shutdown of capacity, and diversion of supply. Results suggest that supply disruptions may foster earlier and more REE mine starts outside of China, although some of these mines may not be able to sustain operations post disruption. Further, price and associated market responses such as production, capacity, and demand tended to extend beyond the disruption period. Such market impacts in the magnet supply chain could affect the costs and availability of a number of emerging clean energy technology applications such as electric vehicles and wind turbines. In the future, GCMat could be used to evaluate the effectiveness of mitigation strategies - including recycling, conservation, product substitution, and diversification of supplies - on reducing the severity of disruptions in REE markets.

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Research Organization:: Argonne National Lab. (ANL), Argonne, IL (United States)

Sponsoring Organization:: U.S. Department of Defense (DOD), Defense Logistics Agency (DLA); USDOE

Grant/Contract Number:: AC02-06CH11357; AC02–06CH11357

OSTI ID:: 1854533

Alternate ID(s):: OSTI ID: 1809637

Journal Information:: Resources, Conservation and Recycling, Vol. 164; ISSN 0921-3449

Publisher:: ElsevierCopyright Statement

Country of Publication:: United States

Language:: English

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