Skip to main content
OSTI.GOVU.S. Department of Energy Office of Scientific and Technical Information
U.S. Department of Energy
Office of Scientific and Technical Information
 

Global roll-out of comprehensive policy measures may aid in bridging emissions gap

Journal Article · · Nature Communications
 [1];  [2];  [3];  [4];  [5];  [2];  [6];  [7];  [8];  [9];  [10];  [1];  [11];  [5];  [10];  [12];  [4];  [10];  [13];  [8] more »;  [1];  [8];  [3];  [14];  [15];  [8];  [5];  [1] « less
  1. Netherlands Environmental Assessment Agency, Hague (Netherlands); Utrecht University (Netherlands)
  2. Euro-Mediterranean Center on Climate Change (CMCC), Milan (Italy)
  3. Federal Univ. of Rio de Janeiro (Brazil)
  4. Potsdam Institute for Climate Impact Research, Potsdam (Germany)
  5. European Commission, Seville (Spain)
  6. Netherlands Environmental Assessment Agency, Hague (Netherlands); Vrije Univ., Amsterdam (Netherlands)
  7. E3Modelling S.A., Athens (Greece)
  8. International Institute for Applied Systems Analysis (IIASA), Laxenburg (Austria)
  9. International Institute for Applied Systems Analysis (IIASA), Laxenburg (Austria); Kyoto Univ. (Japan); National Institute for Environmental Studies (NIES), Tsukuba (Japan)
  10. Imperial College, London (United Kingdom)
  11. Pacific Northwest National Lab. (PNNL), Richland, WA (United States); Univ. of Maryland, College Park, MD (United States)
  12. Potsdam Institute for Climate Impact Research, Potsdam (Germany); Univ. of Potsdam (Germany)
  13. Kyoto Univ. (Japan)
  14. National Institute for Environmental Studies (NIES), Tsukuba (Japan); Institute for Global Environmental Strategies, Hayama (Japan)
  15. Euro-Mediterranean Center on Climate Change (CMCC), Milan (Italy); Polytechnic Univ. of Milan, (Italy)
+ Show Author Affiliations

Closing the emissions gap between Nationally Determined Contributions (NDCs) and the global emissions levels needed to achieve the Paris Agreement’s climate goals will require a comprehensive package of policy measures. National and sectoral policies can help fill the gap, but success stories in one country cannot be automatically replicated in other countries. They need to be adapted to the local context. Here, we develop a new Bridge scenario based on nationally relevant, short-term measures informed by interactions with country experts. These good practice policies are rolled out globally between now and 2030 and combined with carbon pricing thereafter. We implement this scenario with an ensemble of global integrated assessment models. We show that the Bridge scenario closes two-thirds of the emissions gap between NDC and 2°C scenarios by 2030 and enables a pathway in line with the 2 °C goal when combined with the necessary long-term changes, i.e. more comprehensive pricing measures after 2030. The Bridge scenario leads to a scale-up of renewable energy (reaching 52%-88% of global electricity supply by 2050), electrification of end-uses, efficiency improvements in energy demand sectors, and enhanced afforestation and reforestation. Our analysis suggests that early action via good-practice policies is less costly than a delay in global climate cooperation.

Research Organization:
Pacific Northwest National Laboratory (PNNL), Richland, WA (United States)
Sponsoring Organization:
USDOE; European Union
Grant/Contract Number:
AC05-76RL01830
OSTI ID:
1845007
Report Number(s):
PNNL-ACT-SA-10536
Journal Information:
Nature Communications, Journal Name: Nature Communications Journal Issue: 1 Vol. 12; ISSN 2041-1723
Publisher:
Nature Publishing GroupCopyright Statement
Country of Publication:
United States
Language:
English

References (27)

COMMIT Scenario Explorer dataset January 2021
ETSAP-TIAM: the TIMES integrated assessment model Part I: Model structure journal February 2007
Bioenergy technologies in long-run climate change mitigation: results from the EMF-33 study journal August 2020
Stranded investment associated with rapid energy system changes under the mid-century strategy in Japan journal September 2020
Does cost optimization approximate the real-world energy transition? journal July 2016
Model-based analysis of Intended Nationally Determined Contributions and 2 °C pathways for major economies journal October 2018
Political economy constraints on carbon pricing policies: What are the implications for economic efficiency, environmental efficacy, and climate policy design? journal June 2014
The MESSAGE Integrated Assessment Model and the ix modeling platform (ixmp): An open framework for integrated and cross-cutting analysis of energy, climate, the environment, and sustainable development journal February 2019
The Shared Socioeconomic Pathways and their energy, land use, and greenhouse gas emissions implications: An overview journal January 2017
Good practice policies to bridge the emissions gap in key countries journal March 2022
A review of successful climate change mitigation policies in major emitting economies and the potential of global replication journal March 2021
Paris Agreement climate proposals need a boost to keep warming well below 2 °C journal June 2016
Complementing carbon prices with technology policies to keep climate targets within reach journal February 2015
Taking stock of national climate policies to evaluate implementation of the Paris Agreement journal April 2020
Residual fossil CO2 emissions in 1.5–2 °C pathways journal June 2018
Making carbon pricing work for citizens journal July 2018
Sequencing to ratchet up climate policy stringency journal September 2018
Integrity of firms’ emissions reporting in China’s early carbon markets journal January 2019
Policy sequencing toward decarbonization journal November 2017
A multi-model assessment of food security implications of climate change mitigation journal May 2019
Reducing global GHG emissions by replicating successful sector examples: the ‘good practice policies’ scenario journal June 2018
Enhancing global climate policy ambition towards a 1.5 °C stabilization: a short-term multi-model assessment journal April 2018
Short term policies to keep the door open for Paris climate goals journal July 2018
COVID-19 recovery funds dwarf clean energy investment needs journal October 2020
Climate Policy in Practice: a Typology of Obstacles and Implications for Integrated Assessment Modeling journal February 2014
Implication of Paris Agreement in the context of long-term climate mitigation goals journal September 2016
COMMIT Scenario Explorer dataset January 2021

Similar Records

Transparency crucial to Paris climate scenarios—Response
Journal Article · Wed Feb 23 23:00:00 EST 2022 · Science · OSTI ID:2329510
Taking stock of national climate policies to evaluate implementation of the Paris Agreement
Journal Article · Wed Apr 29 00:00:00 EDT 2020 · Nature Communications · OSTI ID:1634899
The Paris pledges and the energy-water-land nexus in Latin America: Exploring implications of greenhouse gas emission reductions
Journal Article · Tue Apr 16 00:00:00 EDT 2019 · PLoS One · OSTI ID:1530591

Related Subjects

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES
Paris Agreement
bridge scenario
climate policy
emissions gap
good practice policies