Supporting cost-effective watershed management strategies for Chesapeake Bay using a modeling and optimization framework

Kaufman, Daniel E.; Shenk, Gary W.; Bhatt, Gopal; Asplen, Kevin W.; Devereux, Olivia H.; Rigelman, Jessica R.; Ellis, J. Hugh; Hobbs, Benjamin F.; Bosch, Darrell J.; Van Houtven, George L.; McGarity, Arthur E.; Linker, Lewis C.; Ball, William P.

doi:10.1016/j.envsoft.2021.105141

Supporting cost-effective watershed management strategies for Chesapeake Bay using a modeling and optimization framework

Journal Article · Sat Jul 17 00:00:00 EDT 2021 · Environmental Modelling and Software

DOI:https://doi.org/10.1016/j.envsoft.2021.105141· OSTI ID:1843230

^[1]; ^[2]; Bhatt, Gopal ^[3]; Asplen, Kevin W. ^[4]; ^[5]; Rigelman, Jessica R. ^[6]; Ellis, J. Hugh ^[7]; Hobbs, Benjamin F. ^[7]; ^[8]; Van Houtven, George L. ^[9]; McGarity, Arthur E. ^[10]; ^[11]; Ball, William P. ^[12]

US Environmental Protection Agency (EPA) Chesapeake Bay Program Office, Annapolis, MD (United States); Chesapeake Research Consortium, Inc., Edgewater, MD (United States)
US Environmental Protection Agency (EPA) Chesapeake Bay Program Office, Annapolis, MD (United States); US Geological Survey, Richmond, VA (United States)
US Environmental Protection Agency (EPA) Chesapeake Bay Program Office, Annapolis, MD (United States); Pennsylvania State Univ., University Park, PA (United States)
US Environmental Protection Agency (EPA) Chesapeake Bay Program Office, Annapolis, MD (United States); University of Maryland, Cambridge, MD (United States). Center for Environmental Science
US Environmental Protection Agency (EPA) Chesapeake Bay Program Office, Annapolis, MD (United States); Devereux Consulting, Inc., Silver Spring, MD (United States)
US Environmental Protection Agency (EPA) Chesapeake Bay Program Office, Annapolis, MD (United States); J7 LLC, Annapolis, MD (United States)
Johns Hopkins Univ., Baltimore, MD (United States)
Virginia Polytechnic Inst. and State Univ. (Virginia Tech), Blacksburg, VA (United States)
RTI International, Research Triangle Park, NC (United States)
Swarthmore College, Swarthmore, PA (United States)
US Environmental Protection Agency (EPA) Chesapeake Bay Program Office, Annapolis, MD (United States)
Chesapeake Research Consortium, Inc., Edgewater, MD (United States); Johns Hopkins Univ., Baltimore, MD (United States)

Extensive efforts to adaptively manage nutrient pollution rely on Chesapeake Bay Program’s (Phase 6) Watershed Model, called Chesapeake Assessment Scenario Tool (CAST), which helps decision-makers plan and track implementation of Best Management Practices (BMPs). We describe mathematical characteristics of CAST and develop a constrained nonlinear BMP-subset model, software, and visualization framework. This represents the first publicly available optimization framework for exploring least-cost strategies of pollutant load control for the United States’ largest estuary. The optimization identifies implementation options for a BMP subset modeled with load reduction effectiveness factors, and the web interface facilitates interactive exploration of >30,000 solutions organized by objective, nutrient control level, and for ~200 counties. We assess framework performance and demonstrate modeled cost improvements when comparing optimization-suggested proposals with proposals inspired by jurisdiction plans. Stakeholder feedback highlights the framework’s current utility for investigating cost-effective tradeoffs and its usefulness as a foundation for future analysis of restoration strategies.

View Accepted Manuscript (DOE)

Research Organization:: Pacific Northwest National Laboratory (PNNL), Richland, WA (United States)

Sponsoring Organization:: USDOE; USEPA

Grant/Contract Number:: AC05-76RL01830

OSTI ID:: 1843230

Report Number(s):: PNNL-SA--157980

Journal Information:: Environmental Modelling and Software, Journal Name: Environmental Modelling and Software Vol. 144; ISSN 1364-8152

Publisher:: ElsevierCopyright Statement

Country of Publication:: United States

Language:: English

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Supporting cost-effective watershed management strategies for Chesapeake Bay using a modeling and optimization framework

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