Addressing Interdependency in a Multimodel Ensemble by Interpolation of Model Properties

Sanderson, Benjamin M.; Knutti, Reto; Caldwell, Peter M.

doi:10.1175/jcli-d-14-00361.1

Addressing Interdependency in a Multimodel Ensemble by Interpolation of Model Properties

Journal Article · Wed Jul 01 00:00:00 EDT 2015 · Journal of Climate

DOI:https://doi.org/10.1175/jcli-d-14-00361.1· OSTI ID:1840116

Sanderson, Benjamin M. ^[1]; Knutti, Reto ^[2]; Caldwell, Peter M. ^[3]

National Center for Atmospheric Research (NCAR), Boulder, CO (United States)
ETH, Zurich (Switzerland)
Lawrence Livermore National Lab. (LLNL), Livermore, CA (United States)

The diverse set of Earth system models used to conduct the CMIP5 ensemble can partly sample the uncertainties in future climate projections. However, combining those projections is complicated by the fact that models developed by different groups share ideas and code and therefore biases. The authors propose a method for combining model results into single or multivariate distributions that are more robust to the inclusion of models with a large degree of interdependency. This study uses a multivariate metric of present-day climatology to assess both model performance and similarity in two recent model intercomparisons, CMIP3 and CMIP5. Model characteristics can be interpolated and then resampled in a space defined by independent climate properties. A form of weighting can be applied by sampling more densely in the region of the space close to the projected observations, thus taking into account both model performance and interdependence. Furthermore, the choice of the sampling distribution’s parameters is a subjective decision that should reflect the researcher’s prior assumptions as to the acceptability of different model errors.

View Accepted Manuscript (DOE)

Research Organization:: Lawrence Livermore National Laboratory (LLNL), Livermore, CA (United States)

Sponsoring Organization:: USDOE National Nuclear Security Administration (NNSA)

Grant/Contract Number:: AC52-07NA27344

OSTI ID:: 1840116

Report Number(s):: LLNL-JRNL--668950; 790709

Journal Information:: Journal of Climate, Journal Name: Journal of Climate Journal Issue: 13 Vol. 28; ISSN 0894-8755

Publisher:: American Meteorological SocietyCopyright Statement

Country of Publication:: United States

Language:: English

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58 GEOSCIENCES
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Addressing Interdependency in a Multimodel Ensemble by Interpolation of Model Properties

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