A framework for hazardous materials transport risk assessment

Journal Article · Sun Oct 01 04:00:00 EDT 1995 · Risk Analysis

DOI:https://doi.org/10.1111/j.1539-6924.1995.tb00755.x· OSTI ID:183559

Erkut, E ^[1]; Verter, V ^[2]

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1. Univ. of Alberta, Edmonton (Canada)
2. McGill Univ., Montreal, Quebec (Canada)

In this paper, we provide a framework for quantitative risk assessment in hazardous materials transport. We first outline a basic model where population centers are approximated by points on a plane with the assumption that in the case of an incident all residents in a population center will experience the same consequences. Different versions of this model have been used by other authors in the literature. This model may be valid if the hazardous materials route goes by small population centers. Then we extend this basic model to assess risks of shipping hazardous materials through large population centers that cannot be modeled as single points on a plane. In the extended model, large population centers are treated as two-dimensional objects on the plane, which allows for a more accurate treatment of consequences than the basic model. To the extent of our knowledge the extended model is novel. We provide numerical examples for both the basic and the extended models, and finish by discussing limitations of the suggested risk assessment framework. 13 refs., 4 figs., 4 tabs.

• Sponsoring Organization: USDOE
• OSTI ID: 183559
• Journal Information: Risk Analysis, Journal Name: Risk Analysis Journal Issue: 5 Vol. 15; ISSN 0272-4332; ISSN RIANDF
• Country of Publication: United States
• Language: English

Related Subjects

29 ENERGY PLANNING, POLICY, AND ECONOMY
ACCIDENTS
HAZARDOUS MATERIALS
MATHEMATICAL MODELS
RISK ASSESSMENT
SAFETY ANALYSIS
TRANSPORT
TRANSPORTATION SYSTEMS
URBAN AREAS