Sensitivity and Uncertainty of the IFR-1 BISON Benchmark

Technical Report · Mon Nov 01 04:00:00 EDT 2021

DOI:https://doi.org/10.2172/1831619· OSTI ID:1831619

Greenquist, Ian ^[1]; Powers, Jeffrey J. ^[1]

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1. Oak Ridge National Lab. (ORNL), Oak Ridge, TN (United States)

The fuel performance code BISON is being used to evaluate metallic fuel for a new fast-spectrum test reactor called the Versatile Test Reactor, which is being considered by the US Department of Energy. To quantify the accuracy of BISON predictions, researchers at Oak Ridge National Laboratory have been developing a series of benchmarks based on legacy metallic fuel experiments. As part of this effort, the sensitivity of BISON predictions to variations in model inputs and the uncertainties associated with BISON predictions must be established. This report summarizes efforts to perform a comprehensive sensitivity analysis (SA) and uncertainty quantification (UQ) on a benchmark based on the IFR-1 experiment. For the SA, at least one input was chosen from every BISON model and physics module used in the benchmark. The inputs were varied individually in a series of BISON simulations. The resulting variations in benchmark predictions were normalized to calculate sensitivities. The strongest sensitivities were identified and used to inform input selections for the UQ. The UQ was performed using the Monte Carlo UQ method. A literature review was conducted to estimate uncertainty distributions for the selected inputs, and values were sampled randomly from each distribution in a series of BISON simulations. Variations in the benchmark predictions were used to estimate uncertainty distributions and confidence intervals. It was found that nearly 100% of benchmark predictions matched the corresponding legacy values within the confidence intervals. However, this is at least partially because of the wide confidence intervals associated with the benchmark predictions. The uncertainty contributions of assumptions in the benchmark, experimental uncertainties, and BISON models were quantified. Some analysis was performed to identify inputs that contributed to the uncertainties. Finally, recommendations are made for future benchmark development and future BISON development.

• Research Organization: Oak Ridge National Laboratory (ORNL), Oak Ridge, TN (United States)
• Sponsoring Organization: USDOE
• DOE Contract Number: AC05-00OR22725
• OSTI ID: 1831619
• Report Number(s): ORNL/TM-2021/2230
• Country of Publication: United States
• Language: English

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