Icarus`s discovery: Acting on global climate change in the face of uncertainty
- Applied Decision Analysis, Tempe, AZ (United States)
- Salt River Project, Tempe, AZ (United States)
The mythological character Icarus had the misfortune of learning the consequences of his decision to fly too near the sun at the same time he employed his decision. Although Daedalus tried to reduce the uncertainties of his son`s decision by warning Icarus of the possible outcome, Icarus had no empirical knowledge of what would actually happen until his waxen wings melted and he fell to the sea. Like Icarus, man has no empirical knowledge or conclusive evidence today of the possible effects of global climate change. And though the consequences of policy decisions toward global climate change may not be as catastrophic as falling into the sea, the social and economic impacts of those decisions will be substantial. There are broad uncertainties related to the scientific and ecological aspects of global climate change. But clearly the ``politics`` of global climate change issues are moving at a faster rate than the science. There is a public outcry for action now, in the face of uncertainty. This paper profiles a case study of a southwestern utility`s use of multi-attribute preference theory to reduce uncertainties and analyze its options for addressing global climate change issues.
- OSTI ID:
- 182846
- Report Number(s):
- CONF-940426-; ISBN 0-923204-11-3; TRN: IM9608%%211
- Resource Relation:
- Conference: International conference on global climate change: science, policy and mitigation strategies, Phoenix, AZ (United States), 5-8 Apr 1994; Other Information: PBD: 1994; Related Information: Is Part Of Global climate change: Science, policy, and mitigation strategies. Proceedings of the Air and Waste Management Association international specialty conference; Mathai, C.V. [ed.] [Arizona Public Service Co., Phoenix, AZ (United States)]; Stensland, G. [ed.] [Illinois State Water Survey, Champaign, IL (United States)]; PB: 1117 p.
- Country of Publication:
- United States
- Language:
- English
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