Summary of global warming uncertainties and the value of information: An analysis using CETA
- Electric Power Research Inst., Palo Alto, CA (United States)
The authors investigate the sensitivity of optimal carbon control strategies to parameters of the Carbon Emissions Trajectory Assessment (CETA) Model, and they use CETA in a simple decision tree framework to estimate the value of information about global warming uncertainties. They find that if an optimal control policy is used under uncertainty, the eventual resolution of uncertainty has high value relative to current research budgets, and resolving uncertainty about the costs of warming is nearly as important as resolving uncertainty about the extent of warming. In addition, the authors find that there is not a high premium on immediate resolution of uncertainty, if resolution would otherwise occur within, say, twenty years; this implies that time is available to plan and execute a carefully designed research program. On the other hand, they find that if the real-world political process would result in a suboptimal control policy being chosen under uncertainty, and this choice could be prevented by early resolution of uncertainty, the benefit of early resolution may be as much as three orders of magnitude greater.
- OSTI ID:
- 182844
- Report Number(s):
- CONF-940426-; ISBN 0-923204-11-3; TRN: IM9608%%209
- Resource Relation:
- Conference: International conference on global climate change: science, policy and mitigation strategies, Phoenix, AZ (United States), 5-8 Apr 1994; Other Information: PBD: 1994; Related Information: Is Part Of Global climate change: Science, policy, and mitigation strategies. Proceedings of the Air and Waste Management Association international specialty conference; Mathai, C.V. [ed.] [Arizona Public Service Co., Phoenix, AZ (United States)]; Stensland, G. [ed.] [Illinois State Water Survey, Champaign, IL (United States)]; PB: 1117 p.
- Country of Publication:
- United States
- Language:
- English
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