Reducing Model Uncertainty of Climate Change Impacts on High Latitude Carbon Assimilation

Rogers, Alistair; Serbin, Shawn P.; Way, Danielle A.

doi:10.1111/gcb.15958

Title: Reducing Model Uncertainty of Climate Change Impacts on High Latitude Carbon Assimilation

Journal Article · Sun Oct 24 00:00:00 EDT 2021 · Global Change Biology

DOI:https://doi.org/10.1111/gcb.15958· OSTI ID:1828308

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Brookhaven National Lab. (BNL), Upton, NY (United States)
Brookhaven National Lab. (BNL), Upton, NY (United States); Univ. of Western Ontario, London, ON (Canada); Duke Univ., Durham, NC (United States)

The Arctic Boreal Region (ABR) has a large impact on global vegetation-atmosphere interactions and is experiencing markedly greater warming than the rest of the planet, a trend that is projected to continue with anticipated future emissions of CO₂. The ABR is a significant source of uncertainty in estimates of carbon uptake in terrestrial biosphere models (TBMs) such that reducing this uncertainty is critical for more accurately estimating global carbon cycling and understanding the response of the region to global change. Process representation and parameterization associated with gross primary productivity (GPP) drives a large amount of this model uncertainty, particularly within the next 50 years, where the response of existing vegetation to climate change will dominate estimates of GPP for the region. Furthermore, we review our current understanding and model representation of GPP in northern latitudes, focusing on vegetation composition, phenology and physiology, and consider how climate change alters these three components. We highlight challenges in the ABR for predicting GPP, but also focus on the unique opportunities for advancing knowledge and model representation, particularly through the combination of remote sensing and traditional boots-on-the-ground science.

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Research Organization:: Brookhaven National Laboratory (BNL), Upton, NY (United States)

Sponsoring Organization:: USDOE Office of Science (SC), Biological and Environmental Research (BER)

Grant/Contract Number:: SC0012704

OSTI ID:: 1828308

Alternate ID(s):: OSTI ID: 1829521

Report Number(s):: BNL-222318-2021-JAAM

Journal Information:: Global Change Biology, Vol. 28, Issue 4; ISSN 1354-1013

Publisher:: WileyCopyright Statement

Country of Publication:: United States

Language:: English

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