Evaluation and uncertainties of global climate models as simulated in East Asia and China

Book · Sat Dec 31 04:00:00 EST 1994

OSTI ID:182822

Zhao, Z C ^[1]

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1. Chinese Academy of Meteorological Sciences, Beijing (China). Climatic Research Center

The assessments and uncertainties of the general circulation models (GCMs) as simulated in East Asia and China (15-60 N, 70-140 E) have been investigated by using seven GCMs. Four methods of assessment have been chosen. The variables for the validations for the GCMs include the annual, seasonal and monthly mean temperatures and precipitation. The assessments indicated that: (1) the simulations of seven GCMs for temperature are much better than those for precipitation; (2) the simulations in winter are much better than those in summer; (3) the simulations in eastern parts are much better than those in Western parts for both temperature and precipitation; (4) the best GCM for simulated temperature is the GISS model, and the best GCM for simulated precipitation is the UKMO-H model. The seven GCMs` means for both simulated temperature and precipitation provided good results. The range of uncertainties in East Asia and China due to human activities are presented. The differences between the GCMs for temperature and precipitation before the year 2050 are much smaller than those after the year 2050.

• OSTI ID: 182822
• Report Number(s): CONF-940426--; ISBN 0-923204-11-3
• Country of Publication: United States
• Language: English

Related Subjects

29 ENERGY PLANNING, POLICY, AND ECONOMY
54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES
AMBIENT TEMPERATURE
ANNUAL VARIATIONS
ASIA
ATMOSPHERIC PRECIPITATIONS
CHINA
CLIMATIC CHANGE
DATA COVARIANCES
EXPERIMENTAL DATA
FORECASTING
GENERAL CIRCULATION MODELS
MONTHLY VARIATIONS
SEASONAL VARIATIONS