Interannual and decadal variability and trends in upper ocean temperatures in the North Pacific Ocean
- Univ. of California, San Diego, La Jolla, CA (United States). Scripps Institution of Oceanography
Temperature profiles from the surface to 400 m deployed over the North Pacific Ocean for the 45 years from 1950--1994 are mapped onto a coarse grid each month, allowing trends in the upper ocean temperature to be estimated. Only temperature profiles distributed from 20{degree}N-60{degree}N are used, these subjected to rigorous scientific quality control. Two parameters are chosen to be representative of the upper ocean thermal structure; i.e., sea surface temperature (SST) and heat storage over the upper 400 m (HS400). Mapping of SST and HS400 is conducted monthly, with optimal interpolation utilizing a priori estimates of the covariance structure of the anomalous fields determined by White. This yields a time sequence of 540 monthly maps for each parameter over this 45-year period. Examining these time sequences for decadal variability and trends finds their magnitude and sign to change substantially as a function of geographical location over the North Pacific Ocean. For example, all along the west coast of North America, both SST and HS400 warmed during the past 45 years. But, in the middle of the North Pacific Ocean, both parameters cooled over this period. The average SST and HS400 over the entire domain from 20{degree}-60{degree}N did not show a trend. Rather, decadal variability dominated the time sequence, with the 1950`s colder than normal, the 1960`s near normal, the 1970`s warmer than normal, the 1980`s colder than normal, and the 1990`s warmer than normal. This natural decadal variability obscures any possible anthropogenic warming due to increased greenhouse gas concentrations in the atmosphere over this period.
- OSTI ID:
- 182784
- Report Number(s):
- CONF-940426-; ISBN 0-923204-11-3; TRN: IM9608%%149
- Resource Relation:
- Conference: International conference on global climate change: science, policy and mitigation strategies, Phoenix, AZ (United States), 5-8 Apr 1994; Other Information: PBD: 1994; Related Information: Is Part Of Global climate change: Science, policy, and mitigation strategies. Proceedings of the Air and Waste Management Association international specialty conference; Mathai, C.V. [ed.] [Arizona Public Service Co., Phoenix, AZ (United States)]; Stensland, G. [ed.] [Illinois State Water Survey, Champaign, IL (United States)]; PB: 1117 p.
- Country of Publication:
- United States
- Language:
- English
Similar Records
Surface climate variations over the North Atlantic Ocean during winter: 1900-1989
Decadal atmosphere-ocean variations in the Pacific