The Implications of Global Change for the Co-Evolution of Argentina's Integrated Energy-Water-Land Systems

Wild, Thomas B.; Khan, Zarrar; Zhao, Mengqi; Suriano, Micaela P.; Bereslawski, Julia L.; Roberts, Paula; Casado, Jose; Gaviño‐Novillo, Marcelo; Clarke, Leon E.; Hejazi, Mohamad; Miralles‐Wilhelm, Fernando R.; Muñoz‐Castillo, Raul; Vernon, Christopher R.; Snyder, Abigail C.; Yarlagadda, Brinda N.; Birnbaum, Abigail; Lamontagne, Jonathan R.; White, Dave; Ojeda‐Matos, Glorynel

doi:10.1029/2020ef001970

The Implications of Global Change for the Co-Evolution of Argentina's Integrated Energy-Water-Land Systems

Journal Article · Tue Jul 20 00:00:00 EDT 2021 · Earth's Future

DOI:https://doi.org/10.1029/2020ef001970· OSTI ID:1823088

^[1]; ^[2]; ^[3]; Suriano, Micaela P. ^[4]; Bereslawski, Julia L. ^[5]; Roberts, Paula ^[6]; Casado, Jose ^[4]; Gaviño‐Novillo, Marcelo ^[4]; Clarke, Leon E. ^[7]; ^[8]; Miralles‐Wilhelm, Fernando R. ^[9]; Muñoz‐Castillo, Raul ^[10]; ^[2]; ^[2]; ^[7]; Birnbaum, Abigail ^[11]; ^[11]; ^[12]; Ojeda‐Matos, Glorynel ^[12]

Univ. of Maryland, College Park, MD (United States); Pacific Northwest National Lab. (PNNL), Richland, WA (United States)
Pacific Northwest National Lab. (PNNL), Richland, WA (United States)
Univ. of Maryland, College Park, MD (United States)
Inst. Nacional del Agua, Buenos Aires (Argentina)
Inter‐American Development Bank, Washington, DC (United States)
Environmental Resources Management, Buenos Aires (Argentina)
Pacific Northwest National Lab. (PNNL), Richland, WA (United States); Univ. of Maryland, College Park, MD (United States)
Pacific Northwest National Lab. (PNNL), Richland, WA (United States); King Abdullah Petroleum Studies and Research Center, Riyadh (Saudi Arabia)
Univ. of Maryland, College Park, MD (United States); George Mason Univ., Fairfax, VA (United States); The Nature Conservancy, Arlington, VA (United States)
Inter‐American Development Bank, Washington DC (United States)
Tufts Univ., Boston, MA (United States)
Arizona State Univ., Phoenix, AZ (United States)

This study seeks to understand how Argentina’s energy, water, and land (EWL) systems will co-evolve under a representative array of human and earth system influences, including socioeconomic change, climate change, and climate policy. To capture Argentina’s sub-national EWL dynamics in the context of global change, we couple the Global Change Analysis Model with a suite of consistent, gridded sectoral downscaling models to explore multiple stakeholder-engaged scenarios. Across scenarios, Argentina has the economic opportunity to use its vast land resources to satisfy growing domestic and international demand for crops, such as oil (e.g., soy) and biomass. The human (rather than earth) system produces the most dominant changes in mid-century EWL resource use. A Reference scenario characterized by modest socioeconomic growth projects a 40% increase in Argentina’s agricultural production by 2050 (relative to 2020) by using 50,000 km² of additional cropland and 40% more water. A Climate Policy scenario designed to achieve net-zero carbon emissions globally shortly after mid-century projects that Argentina could use 100,000 km² of additional land (and 65% more water) to grow biomass and other crops. The burden of navigating these national opportunities and challenges could fall disproportionately on a subset of Argentina’s river basins. The Colorado and Negro basins could experience moderate-to-severe water scarcity as they simultaneously navigate substantial irrigated crop demand growth and climate-induced declines in natural water availability. Argentina serves as a generalizable testbed to demonstrate that multi-scale EWL planning challenges can be identified and managed more effectively via integrated analysis of coupled human-earth systems.

View Accepted Manuscript (DOE)

Research Organization:: Pacific Northwest National Laboratory (PNNL), Richland, WA (United States)

Sponsoring Organization:: USDOE

Grant/Contract Number:: AC05-76RL01830

OSTI ID:: 1823088

Report Number(s):: PNNL-SA--165243

Journal Information:: Earth's Future, Journal Name: Earth's Future Journal Issue: 8 Vol. 9; ISSN 2328-4277

Publisher:: American Geophysical Union (AGU)Copyright Statement

Country of Publication:: United States

Language:: English

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Tethys – A Python Package for Spatial and Temporal Downscaling of Global Water Withdrawals Li, Xinya; Vernon, Chris R.; Hejazi, Mohamad I. Journal of Open Research Software, Vol. 6 https://doi.org/10.5334/jors.197	journal	January 2018
Demeter – A Land Use and Land Cover Change Disaggregation Model Vernon, Chris R.; Le Page, Yannick; Chen, Min Journal of Open Research Software, Vol. 6 https://doi.org/10.5334/jors.208	journal	January 2018
A Global Hydrologic Framework to Accelerate Scientific Discovery Vernon, Chris R.; Hejazi, Mohamad I.; Turner, Sean W. D. Journal of Open Research Software, Vol. 7 https://doi.org/10.5334/jors.245	journal	January 2019
Metis – A Tool to Harmonize and Analyze Multi-Sectoral Data and Linkages at Variable Spatial Scales Khan, Zarrar; Wild, Thomas; Vernon, Chris Journal of Open Research Software, Vol. 8 https://doi.org/10.5334/jors.292	journal	January 2020
Adaptive Governance and Integrated Water Resources Management in Argentina Berardo, Ramiro; Meyer, Marcos; Olivier, Tomás International Journal of Water Governance, Vol. 1, Issue 3 https://doi.org/10.7564/13-IJWG9	journal	July 2013

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