How Much Could Article 6 Enhance Nationally Determined Contribution Ambition Toward Paris Agreement Goals Through Economic Efficiency?

Edmonds, James; Yu, Sha; McJeon, Haewon C.; Forrister, Dirk; Aldy, Joseph; Hultman, Nathan; Cui, Ryna; Waldhoff, Stephanie T.; Clarke, Leon; Clara, Stefano de; Munnings, Clayton

doi:10.1142/s201000782150007x

How Much Could Article 6 Enhance Nationally Determined Contribution Ambition Toward Paris Agreement Goals Through Economic Efficiency?

Journal Article · Mon Jun 28 00:00:00 EDT 2021 · Climate Change Economics

DOI:https://doi.org/10.1142/s201000782150007x· OSTI ID:1819688

^[1]; Yu, Sha ^[1]; ^[1]; Forrister, Dirk ^[2]; Aldy, Joseph ^[3]; Hultman, Nathan ^[4]; Cui, Ryna ^[4]; Waldhoff, Stephanie T. ^[1]; Clarke, Leon ^[4]; Clara, Stefano de ^[5]; Munnings, Clayton ^[5]

Pacific Northwest National Lab. (PNNL), Richland, WA (United States)
International Emissions Trading Association, Geneva (Switzerland)
Harvard Univ., Cambridge, MA (United States)
Univ. of Maryland, College Park, MD (United States)
International Emissions Trading Association, Geneva (Switzerland); Univ. of California, Berkeley, CA (United States)

The Paris Agreement of 2015 uses Nationally Determined Contributions (NDCs) to achieve its goal to limit climate change to well below 2°C. Article 6 allows countries to cooperatively implement NDCs provided they do not double-count mitigation. We estimate that economic efficiency gains from cooperative implementation of existing NDC goals using Article 6 could reduce the cost of achieving NDC goals in 2030 to all parties by ~$$\$$300$ × 10⁹, which if reinvested in additional emissions mitigation could add 9 billion tons CO₂/year mitigation, beyond the 8 billion tons CO₂/year currently pledged in 2030. We estimate that more than half of the 2030 gains could come from nature-based measures, but long-term potential for nature-based measures is more limited. How much or even if this economic potential can be realized is uncertain and will depend on both the rules and their implementation.

View Accepted Manuscript (DOE)

Research Organization:: Pacific Northwest National Laboratory (PNNL), Richland, WA (United States)

Sponsoring Organization:: USDOE

Grant/Contract Number:: AC05-76RL01830

OSTI ID:: 1819688

Report Number(s):: PNNL-SA--162547

Journal Information:: Climate Change Economics, Journal Name: Climate Change Economics Journal Issue: 02 Vol. 12; ISSN 2010-0078

Publisher:: World ScientificCopyright Statement

Country of Publication:: United States

Language:: English

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54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES
Article 6
Emissions trading
Enhanced ambition
Market mechanisms
NDC
Paris agreement

How Much Could Article 6 Enhance Nationally Determined Contribution Ambition Toward Paris Agreement Goals Through Economic Efficiency?

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