Predictive Proxies of Present and Future Lightning in a Superparameterized Model

Charn, Alexander B.; Parishani, Hossein

doi:10.1029/2021JD035461

Title: Predictive Proxies of Present and Future Lightning in a Superparameterized Model

Journal Article · Tue Sep 07 00:00:00 EDT 2021 · Journal of Geophysical Research: Atmospheres

DOI:https://doi.org/10.1029/2021JD035461· OSTI ID:1818995

^[1];

^[2]

Department of Earth and Planetary Science University of California Berkeley Berkeley CA USA, Climate and Ecosystem Sciences Division Lawrence Berkeley National Laboratory Berkeley CA USA
Department of Earth System Science University of California Irvine Irvine CA USA, Now at Ansys Inc. Irvine CA USA

Abstract A superparameterized climate model is used to assess the global performance of several previously proposed proxies for lightning. In particular, predictors incorporating hydrometeor (ice, graupel) profiles and convective vertical velocities are compared to observations, then used to estimate changes in flash rates with global warming. The choice of microphysics parameterization is also investigated, with all predictors showing higher correlations with Lightning Imaging Sensor/Optical Transient Detector observations when using a 2‐moment scheme compared to a 1‐moment representation. All proxies generally agree in their response to warming over tropical land, with notable decreases in Africa, the Middle East, and northern South America, but disagree over oceans and the midlatitudes. The product of convective available potential energy and precipitation predicts increases over these latter areas, as do the 2‐moment ice‐based proxies, while those of the 1‐moment model tend to show decreases, highlighting the importance of cloud microphysics when using climate models to simulate lightning.

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Research Organization:: Lawrence Berkeley National Laboratory (LBNL), Berkeley, CA (United States)

Sponsoring Organization:: USDOE Office of Science (SC), Biological and Environmental Research (BER)

Grant/Contract Number:: DE‐AC02‐05CH11231; DE‐SC0012548; AC02-05CH11231; SC0012548

OSTI ID:: 1818995

Alternate ID(s):: OSTI ID: 1814631; OSTI ID: 1818996

Journal Information:: Journal of Geophysical Research: Atmospheres, Journal Name: Journal of Geophysical Research: Atmospheres Vol. 126 Journal Issue: 17; ISSN 2169-897X

Publisher:: American Geophysical Union (AGU)Copyright Statement

Country of Publication:: United States

Language:: English

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