Tipping points of Mississippi Delta marshes due to accelerated sea-level rise

Törnqvist, Torbjörn E.; Jankowski, Krista L.; Li, Yong-Xiang; González, Juan L.

doi:10.1126/sciadv.aaz5512

Tipping points of Mississippi Delta marshes due to accelerated sea-level rise

Journal Article · Fri May 22 04:00:00 EDT 2020 · Science Advances

DOI:https://doi.org/10.1126/sciadv.aaz5512· OSTI ID:1817157

^[1]; ^[2]; ^[3]; González, Juan L. ^[4]

Tulane Univ., New Orleans, LA (United States)
Tulane Univ., New Orleans, LA (United States); Coastal Protection and Restoration Authority, Baton Rouge, LA (United States)
Tulane Univ., New Orleans, LA (United States); Nanjing Univ. (China)
Tulane Univ., New Orleans, LA (United States); University of Texas Rio Grande Valley, Edinburg, TX (United States)

Coastal marshes are threatened by relative sea-level (RSL) rise, yet recent studies predict marsh survival even under the high rates of RSL rise expected later in this century. However, because these studies are mostly based on short-term records, uncertainty persists about the longer-term vulnerability of coastal marshes. We present an 8500-year-long marsh record from the Mississippi Delta, showing that at rates of RSL rise exceeding 6 to 9 mm year^–1, marsh conversion into open water occurs in about 50 years. At rates of RSL rise exceeding ~3 mm year^–1, marsh drowning occurs within a few centuries. Because present-day rates of global sea-level rise already surpass this rate, submergence of the remaining ~15,000 km² of marshland in coastal Louisiana is probably inevitable. RSL-driven tipping points for marsh drowning vary geographically, and those for the Mississippi Delta may be lower than elsewhere. Nevertheless, our findings highlight the need for consideration of longer time windows in determining the vulnerability of coastal marshes worldwide.

View Accepted Manuscript (DOE)

Research Organization:: Tulane University, New Orleans, LA (United States)

Sponsoring Organization:: USDOE; National Science Foundation (NSF)

OSTI ID:: 1817157

Journal Information:: Science Advances, Journal Name: Science Advances Journal Issue: 21 Vol. 6; ISSN 2375-2548

Publisher:: AAASCopyright Statement

Country of Publication:: United States

Language:: English

References (40)

Understanding subsidence in the Mississippi Delta region due to sediment, ice, and ocean loading: Insights from geophysical modeling: Modeling load-induced subsidence Wolstencroft, Martin; Shen, Zhixiong; Törnqvist, Torbjörn E. Journal of Geophysical Research: Solid Earth, Vol. 119, Issue 4 https://doi.org/10.1002/2013JB010928	journal	April 2014
The contribution of glacial isostatic adjustment to projections of sea‐level change along the Atlantic and Gulf coasts of North America Love, Ryan; Milne, Glenn A.; Tarasov, Lev Earth's Future, Vol. 4, Issue 10 https://doi.org/10.1002/2016EF000363	journal	October 2016
Short organic carbon turnover time and narrow ¹⁴ C age spectra in early Holocene wetland paleosols Vetter, Lael; Rosenheim, Brad E.; Fernandez, Alvaro Geochemistry, Geophysics, Geosystems, Vol. 18, Issue 1 https://doi.org/10.1002/2016GC006526	journal	January 2017
Land loss by pond expansion on the Mississippi River Delta Plain Ortiz, Alejandra C.; Roy, Samapriya; Edmonds, Douglas A. Geophysical Research Letters, Vol. 44, Issue 8 https://doi.org/10.1002/2017GL073079	journal	April 2017
Estimating shallow subsidence in microtidal salt marshes of the southeastern United States: Kaye and Barghoorn revisited Cahoon, Donald R.; Reed, Denise J.; Day, John W. Marine Geology, Vol. 128, Issue 1-2 https://doi.org/10.1016/0025-3227(95)00087-F	journal	October 1995
An equilibrium profile model for retreating marsh shorelines in southeast Louisiana Wilson, Carol A.; Allison, Mead A. Estuarine, Coastal and Shelf Science, Vol. 80, Issue 4 https://doi.org/10.1016/j.ecss.2008.09.004	journal	December 2008
Synchronizing a sea-level jump, final Lake Agassiz drainage, and abrupt cooling 8200years ago Li, Yong-Xiang; Törnqvist, Torbjörn E.; Nevitt, Johanna M. Earth and Planetary Science Letters, Vol. 315-316 https://doi.org/10.1016/j.epsl.2011.05.034	journal	January 2012
Quantifying Holocene lithospheric subsidence rates underneath the Mississippi Delta Yu, Shi-Yong; Törnqvist, Torbjörn E.; Hu, Ping Earth and Planetary Science Letters, Vol. 331-332 https://doi.org/10.1016/j.epsl.2012.02.021	journal	May 2012
When did modern rates of sea-level rise start? Gehrels, W. Roland; Woodworth, Philip L. Global and Planetary Change, Vol. 100 https://doi.org/10.1016/j.gloplacha.2012.10.020	journal	January 2013
A new Late Holocene sea-level record from the Mississippi Delta: evidence for a climate/sea level connection? González, Juan L.; Törnqvist, Torbjörn E. Quaternary Science Reviews, Vol. 28, Issue 17-18 https://doi.org/10.1016/j.quascirev.2009.04.003	journal	August 2009
Current subsidence rates due to compaction of Holocene sediments in southern Louisiana Meckel, T. A.; ten Brink, U. S.; Williams, S. Jeffress Geophysical Research Letters, Vol. 33, Issue 11 https://doi.org/10.1029/2006GL026300	journal	January 2006
Biologically-controlled multiple equilibria of tidal landforms and the fate of the Venice lagoon Marani, Marco; D'Alpaos, Andrea; Lanzoni, Stefano Geophysical Research Letters, Vol. 34, Issue 11 https://doi.org/10.1029/2007GL030178	journal	January 2007
Quantitative evidence that compaction of Holocene sediments drives the present land subsidence of the Po Delta, Italy Teatini, P.; Tosi, L.; Strozzi, T. Journal of Geophysical Research, Vol. 116, Issue B8 https://doi.org/10.1029/2010JB008122	journal	August 2011
High-resolution numerical modeling of tides in the western Atlantic, Gulf of Mexico, and Caribbean Sea during the Holocene Hill, D. F.; Griffiths, S. D.; Peltier, W. R. Journal of Geophysical Research, Vol. 116, Issue C10 https://doi.org/10.1029/2010JC006896	journal	January 2011
An evaluation of subsidence rates and sea-level variability in the northern Gulf of Mexico: SUBSIDENCE AND SEA LEVEL VARIABILITY Kolker, Alexander S.; Allison, Mead A.; Hameed, Sultan Geophysical Research Letters, Vol. 38, Issue 21 https://doi.org/10.1029/2011GL049458	journal	November 2011
Numerical models of salt marsh evolution: Ecological, geomorphic, and climatic factors Fagherazzi, Sergio; Kirwan, Matthew L.; Mudd, Simon M. Reviews of Geophysics, Vol. 50, Issue 1 https://doi.org/10.1029/2011RG000359	journal	January 2012
Catastrophic shifts in ecosystems Scheffer, Marten; Carpenter, Steve; Foley, Jonathan A. Nature, Vol. 413, Issue 6856 https://doi.org/10.1038/35098000	journal	October 2001
The value of the world's ecosystem services and natural capital Costanza, Robert; d'Arge, Ralph; de Groot, Rudolf Nature, Vol. 387, Issue 6630 https://doi.org/10.1038/387253a0	journal	May 1997
Tidal wetland stability in the face of human impacts and sea-level rise Kirwan, Matthew L.; Megonigal, J. Patrick Nature, Vol. 504, Issue 7478 https://doi.org/10.1038/nature12856	journal	December 2013
Overestimation of marsh vulnerability to sea level rise Kirwan, Matthew L.; Temmerman, Stijn; Skeehan, Emily E. Nature Climate Change, Vol. 6, Issue 3 https://doi.org/10.1038/nclimate2909	journal	February 2016
Consequences of twenty-first-century policy for multi-millennial climate and sea-level change Clark, Peter U.; Shakun, Jeremy D.; Marcott, Shaun A. Nature Climate Change, Vol. 6, Issue 4 https://doi.org/10.1038/nclimate2923	journal	February 2016
Marsh vulnerability to sea-level rise Parkinson, Randall W.; Craft, Christopher; DeLaune, Ronald D. Nature Climate Change, Vol. 7, Issue 11 https://doi.org/10.1038/nclimate3424	journal	November 2017
Vulnerability of Louisiana’s coastal wetlands to present-day rates of relative sea-level rise Jankowski, Krista L.; Törnqvist, Torbjörn E.; Fernandes, Anjali M. Nature Communications, Vol. 8, Issue 1 https://doi.org/10.1038/ncomms14792	journal	March 2017
Mississippi Delta subsidence primarily caused by compaction of Holocene strata Törnqvist, Torbjörn E.; Wallace, Davin J.; Storms, Joep E. A. Nature Geoscience, Vol. 1, Issue 3 https://doi.org/10.1038/ngeo129	journal	February 2008
Linking the historic 2011 Mississippi River flood to coastal wetland sedimentation Falcini, Federico; Khan, Nicole S.; Macelloni, Leonardo Nature Geoscience, Vol. 5, Issue 11 https://doi.org/10.1038/ngeo1615	journal	October 2012
Drowning of the Mississippi Delta due to insufficient sediment supply and global sea-level rise Blum, Michael D.; Roberts, Harry H. Nature Geoscience, Vol. 2, Issue 7 https://doi.org/10.1038/ngeo553	journal	June 2009
Predicting marsh vulnerability to sea-level rise using Holocene relative sea-level data Horton, Benjamin P.; Shennan, Ian; Bradley, Sarah L. Nature Communications, Vol. 9, Issue 1 https://doi.org/10.1038/s41467-018-05080-0	journal	July 2018
Future response of global coastal wetlands to sea-level rise Schuerch, Mark; Spencer, Tom; Temmerman, Stijn Nature, Vol. 561, Issue 7722 https://doi.org/10.1038/s41586-018-0476-5	journal	September 2018
The role of sedimentation and natural compaction in a prograding delta: insights from the mega Mekong delta, Vietnam Zoccarato, Claudia; Minderhoud, Philip S. J.; Teatini, Pietro Scientific Reports, Vol. 8, Issue 1 https://doi.org/10.1038/s41598-018-29734-7	journal	July 2018
Fifteen Years of Vegetation and Soil Development after Brackish-Water Marsh Creation Craft, Christopher; Broome, Stephen; Campbell, Carlton Restoration Ecology, Vol. 10, Issue 2 https://doi.org/10.1046/j.1526-100X.2002.01020.x	journal	June 2002
Elevated CO2 stimulates marsh elevation gain, counterbalancing sea-level rise Langley, J. A.; McKee, K. L.; Cahoon, D. R. Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences, Vol. 106, Issue 15 https://doi.org/10.1073/pnas.0807695106	journal	March 2009
Critical width of tidal flats triggers marsh collapse in the absence of sea-level rise Mariotti, G.; Fagherazzi, S. Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences, Vol. 110, Issue 14 https://doi.org/10.1073/pnas.1219600110	journal	March 2013
Rapid shoreward encroachment of salt marsh cordgrass in response to accelerated sea-level rise Donnelly, Jeffrey P.; Bertness, Mark D. Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences, Vol. 98, Issue 25 https://doi.org/10.1073/pnas.251209298	journal	November 2001
The contribution of peat compaction to total basin subsidence: implications for the provision of accommodation space in organic-rich deltas van Asselen, S. Basin Research, Vol. 23, Issue 2 https://doi.org/10.1111/j.1365-2117.2010.00482.x	journal	June 2010
U.S. Pacific coastal wetland resilience and vulnerability to sea-level rise Thorne, Karen; MacDonald, Glen; Guntenspergen, Glenn Science Advances, Vol. 4, Issue 2 https://doi.org/10.1126/sciadv.aao3270	journal	February 2018
Restoration of the Mississippi Delta: Lessons from Hurricanes Katrina and Rita Day, J. W.; Boesch, D. F.; Clairain, E. J. Science, Vol. 315, Issue 5819 https://doi.org/10.1126/science.1137030	journal	March 2007
Worldwide Initiation of Holocene Marine Deltas by Deceleration of Sea-Level Rise Stanley, Daniel Jean; Warne, Andrew G. Science, Vol. 265, Issue 5169 https://doi.org/10.1126/science.265.5169.228	journal	July 1994
Deciphering Holocene sea-level history on the U.S. Gulf Coast: A high-resolution record from the Mississippi Delta Törnqvist, Torbjörn E.; González, Juan L.; Newsom, Lee A. Geological Society of America Bulletin, Vol. 116, Issue 7 https://doi.org/10.1130/B2525478.1	journal	January 2004
Marsh Processes and Their Response to Climate Change and Sea-Level Rise FitzGerald, Duncan M.; Hughes, Zoe Annual Review of Earth and Planetary Sciences, Vol. 47, Issue 1 https://doi.org/10.1146/annurev-earth-082517-010255	journal	May 2019
Responses of Coastal Wetlands to Rising sea Level Morris, James T.; Sundareshwar, P. V.; Nietch, Christopher T. Ecology, Vol. 83, Issue 10 https://doi.org/10.1890/0012-9658(2002)083[2869:ROCWTR]2.0.CO;2	journal	October 2002

Similar Records

Effects of sea level rise on deltaic coastal marshlands, Mississippi River deltaic plain

Conference · Tue May 01 00:00:00 EDT 1990 · AAPG Bulletin (American Association of Petroleum Geologists); (USA) · OSTI ID:6602712

Saltmarsh loss in southeastern North Carolina Lagoons: importance of sea level rise and inlet dredging

Journal Article · · J. Coast. Res.; (United States) · OSTI ID:6181309

Vegetation change on a northeast tidal marsh: Interaction of sea-level rise and marsh accretion

Journal Article · Thu Dec 31 23:00:00 EST 1992 · Ecology; (United States) · OSTI ID:6470553

Related Subjects

59 BASIC BIOLOGICAL SCIENCES

Tipping points of Mississippi Delta marshes due to accelerated sea-level rise

Citation Formats

References (40)

Similar Records

Related Subjects