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Teleconnections of the Quasi–Biennial Oscillation in a multi–model ensemble of QBO–resolving models

Journal Article · · Quarterly Journal of the Royal Meteorological Society
DOI:https://doi.org/10.1002/qj.4048· OSTI ID:1813436
 [1];  [2];  [2];  [3];  [4];  [5];  [6];  [7];  [8];  [6];  [9];  [10];  [11];  [5];  [2];  [12];  [2];  [13];  [14];  [10] more »;  [15];  [16];  [17];  [18];  [19];  [10];  [14];  [3];  [3] « less
  1. Canadian Centre for Climate Modelling and Analysis (CCCma), Victoria (Canada); National Center for Atmospheric Research
  2. National Center for Atmospheric Research, Boulder, CO (United States)
  3. Meteorological Research Inst. (MRI), Tsukuba (Japan)
  4. Aichi Univ. of Education, Kariya (Japan)
  5. National Research Council (ISMAR‐CNR), Rome (Italy)
  6. Univ. of Oxford (United Kingdom)
  7. Met Office Hadley Centre (MOHC), Exeter (United Kingdom)
  8. Univ. of Hawaii, Honolulu, HI (United States); International Pacific Research Center (IPRC), Honolulu, HI (United States)
  9. Barcelona Supercomputing Center (BSC) (Spain)
  10. Karlsruhe Inst. of Technology (KIT) (Germany)
  11. Met Office, Exeter (United Kingdom)
  12. Yonsei Univ., Seoul (South Korea)
  13. NorthWest Research Associates (NWRA) Boulder, CO (United States)
  14. Japan Agency for Marine‐Earth Science and Technology (JAMSTEC), Yokohama (Japan)
  15. Goethe‐Univ., Frankfurt am Main (Germany)
  16. Lab. de Météorologie Dynamique (LMD), Paris (France)
  17. Canadian Centre for Climate Modelling and Analysis (CCCma), Victoria (Canada); Univ. of Toronto, ON (Canada)
  18. Canadian Centre for Climate Modelling and Analysis (CCCma), Victoria (Canada)
  19. European Centre for Medium‐Range Weather Forecasts (ECMWF), Reading (United Kingdom)
+ Show Author Affiliations
The quasi-biennial oscillation (QBO) dominates the interannual variability of the tropical stratosphere and influences other regions of the atmosphere. The high predictability of the QBO implies that its teleconnections could lead to in-creased skill of seasonal and decadal forecasts provided the relevant mechanisms are accurately represented in models. Here modelling and sampling uncertainties of QBO teleconnections are examined using a multi-model ensemble of QBO-resolving atmospheric general circulation models that have carried out a set of coordinated experiments as part of the Stratosphere-troposphere Processes And their Role in Climate (SPARC) QBO initiative (QBOi). During Northern Hemisphere winter the stratospheric polar vortex in most of these models strengthens when the QBO near 50 hPa is westerly and weakens when it is easterly, consistent with, but weaker than, the observed response. These weak responses are likely due to model errors, such as systematically weak QBO amplitudes near 50 hPa, affecting the teleconnection. The teleconnection to the North Atlantic Oscillation is less well captured overall, but of similar strength to the observed signal in the few models that do show it. Furthermore, the models do not show clear evidence of a QBO teleconnection to the Northern Hemisphere Pacific sector subtropical jet.
Research Organization:
University Corporation for Atmospheric Research, Boulder, CO (United States)
Sponsoring Organization:
USDOE Office of Science (SC), Biological and Environmental Research (BER)
Grant/Contract Number:
89243018SSC000007
OSTI ID:
1813436
Journal Information:
Quarterly Journal of the Royal Meteorological Society, Journal Name: Quarterly Journal of the Royal Meteorological Society Journal Issue: 744 Vol. 148; ISSN 0035-9009
Publisher:
Royal Meteorological SocietyCopyright Statement
Country of Publication:
United States
Language:
English

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Related Subjects

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES
North Atlantic Oscillation
Quasi-Biennial Oscillation
polar vortex
seasonal forecasting
stratosphere
stratosphere-troposphere coupling
teleconnection