Evacuation decision behavior for no-notice emergency events

Golshani, Nima; Shabanpour, Ramin; Mohammadian, Abolfazl; Auld, Joshua; Ley, Hubert

doi:10.1016/j.trd.2019.01.025

Evacuation decision behavior for no-notice emergency events

Journal Article · Tue Jan 29 00:00:00 EST 2019 · Transportation Research. Part D, Transport and Environment

DOI:https://doi.org/10.1016/j.trd.2019.01.025· OSTI ID:1812748

Golshani, Nima ^[1]; Shabanpour, Ramin ^[1]; Mohammadian, Abolfazl ^[1]; Auld, Joshua ^[2]; Ley, Hubert ^[2]

Univ. of Illinois, Chicago, IL (United States)
Argonne National Lab. (ANL), Argonne, IL (United States)

No-notice emergency events refer to unpredictable disasters such as earthquakes, chemical spills, or terrorist attacks, where it is impracticable to forewarn the public about their occurrence and design evacuation plans for them. This calls for an in-depth investigation of people’s evacuation behavior and identifying the most influential factors in their evacuation planning process to develop policy-sensitive pre-disaster plans for such events. As a response to this need, this study investigates individuals’ evacuation decision behavior in the context of no-notice emergency events. Since it is highly expected that people will have heterogenous decision behavior in such situations, we first apply a clustering algorithm to classify them into three maximally homogeneous clusters. Then, cluster-specific multivariate ordered probit models are developed to estimate the likelihood of selecting any of the three options of ignoring the situation, seeking shelter at the place, and evacuating to a safe place. The model estimation results indicate that a wide spectrum of factors affect the evacuation decision including individuals’ socio-economic attributes, disaster characteristics, built-environment factors, and government evacuation order. Further, variations of estimated coefficients across the population clusters highlight the significant dissimilarities in decision behavior of their associated members.

View Accepted Manuscript (DOE)

Research Organization:: Argonne National Laboratory (ANL), Argonne, IL (United States)

Sponsoring Organization:: U.S. Department of Transportation; USDOE

Grant/Contract Number:: AC02-06CH11357

OSTI ID:: 1812748

Journal Information:: Transportation Research. Part D, Transport and Environment, Journal Name: Transportation Research. Part D, Transport and Environment Vol. 77; ISSN 1361-9209

Publisher:: ElsevierCopyright Statement

Country of Publication:: United States

Language:: English

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99 GENERAL AND MISCELLANEOUS
Evacuation decision
Multivariate ordered probit
No-notice disaster
Two-step clustering

Evacuation decision behavior for no-notice emergency events

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