Quantifying the challenge of reaching a 100% renewable energy power system for the United States

Cole, Wesley J.; Greer, Danny; Denholm, Paul; Frazier, A. Will; Machen, Scott; Mai, Trieu; Vincent, Nina; Baldwin, Samuel F.

doi:10.1016/j.joule.2021.05.011

Quantifying the challenge of reaching a 100% renewable energy power system for the United States

Journal Article · Wed Jun 16 00:00:00 EDT 2021 · Joule

DOI:https://doi.org/10.1016/j.joule.2021.05.011· OSTI ID:1812702

^[1]; Greer, Danny ^[1]; ^[1]; Frazier, A. Will ^[1]; Machen, Scott ^[1]; ^[1]; Vincent, Nina ^[1]; Baldwin, Samuel F. ^[2]

National Renewable Energy Lab. (NREL), Golden, CO (United States)
USDOE Office of Energy Efficiency and Renewable Energy (EERE)

We simulate pathways for achieving up to 100% renewable energy (RE) electric power systems for the contiguous United States. Under base conditions, the least-cost buildout has RE penetration growing up to 57% in 2050. Relative to this base scenario, average CO2 abatement costs of achieving 80%, 90%, 95%, and 100% RE are $25, $33, $40, and $61/ton, respectively, with system costs growing from $30 to $36/MWh at 95% (achieved in 2040) and $39/MWh at 100%. Incremental abatement costs from 99% to 100% RE reach $930/ton, driven primarily by the need for firm RE capacity. In addition to the base conditions, we also examined 22 alternative conditions for a buildout of up to 100%. These sensitivities capture different technology trajectories, compliance requirements, requirement timing, electrification, and transmission availability. Nonlinear marginal costs for the last few percent approaching 100% RE were found for all sensitivities, which might motivate alternative nonelectric-sector abatement opportunities.

View Accepted Manuscript (DOE)

Research Organization:: National Renewable Energy Laboratory (NREL), Golden, CO (United States)

Sponsoring Organization:: USDOE Office of Energy Efficiency and Renewable Energy (EERE), Strategic Programs Office

Grant/Contract Number:: AC36-08GO28308

OSTI ID:: 1812702

Report Number(s):: NREL-JA--5C00-80629; MainId:66360; UUID:2556a8fe-6117-44d7-becf-b74a05ff8aad; MainAdminID:48436

Journal Information:: Joule, Journal Name: Joule Journal Issue: 7 Vol. 5; ISSN 2542-4351

Publisher:: Elsevier - Cell PressCopyright Statement

Country of Publication:: United States

Language:: English

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32 ENERGY CONSERVATION, CONSUMPTION, AND UTILIZATION
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Quantifying the challenge of reaching a 100% renewable energy power system for the United States

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