Utilizing Environmental Tracers to Reduce Groundwater Flow and Transport Model Parameter Uncertainties

Thiros, Nicholas E.; Gardner, W. Payton; Kuhlman, Kristopher L.

doi:10.1029/2020WR028235

Utilizing Environmental Tracers to Reduce Groundwater Flow and Transport Model Parameter Uncertainties

Journal Article · Fri Jul 16 04:00:00 EDT 2021 · Water Resources Research

DOI:https://doi.org/10.1029/2020WR028235· OSTI ID:1808335

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Geosciences Department University of Montana Missoula MT USA
Sandia National Laboratories Albuquerque NM USA

Abstract

Non‐uniqueness in groundwater model calibration is a primary source of uncertainty in groundwater flow and transport predictions. In this study, we investigate the ability of environmental tracer information to constrain groundwater model parameters. We utilize a pilot point calibration procedure conditioned to subsets of observed data including: liquid pressures, tritium ( ³ H), chlorofluorocarbon‐12 (CFC‐12), and sulfur hexafluoride (SF ₆ ) concentrations; and groundwater apparent ages inferred from these environmental tracers, to quantify uncertainties in the heterogeneous permeability fields and infiltration rates of a steady‐state 2‐D synthetic aquifer and a transient 3‐D model of a field site located near Riverton, Wyoming (USA). To identify the relative data worth of each observation data type, the post‐calibration uncertainties of the optimal parameters for a given observation subset are compared to that from the full observation data set. Our results suggest that the calibration‐constrained permeability field uncertainties are largest when liquid pressures are used as the sole calibration data set. We find significant reduction in permeability uncertainty and increased predictive accuracy when the environmental tracer concentrations, rather than apparent groundwater ages, are used as calibration targets in the synthetic model. Calibration of the Riverton field site model using environmental tracer concentrations directly produces infiltration rate estimates with the lowest uncertainties, however; permeability field uncertainties remain similar between the environmental tracer concentration and apparent groundwater age calibration scenarios. This work provides insight on the data worth of environmental tracer information to calibrate groundwater models and highlights potential benefits of directly assimilating environmental tracer concentrations into model parameter estimation procedures.

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Sponsoring Organization:: USDOE

Grant/Contract Number:: NA0003525

OSTI ID:: 1808335

Alternate ID(s):: OSTI ID: 1808339
OSTI ID: 1810349
OSTI ID: 2923862

Journal Information:: Water Resources Research, Journal Name: Water Resources Research Journal Issue: 7 Vol. 57; ISSN 0043-1397

Publisher:: American Geophysical Union (AGU)Copyright Statement

Country of Publication:: United States

Language:: English

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Utilizing Environmental Tracers to Reduce Groundwater Flow and Transport Model Parameter Uncertainties

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Utilizing Environmental Tracers to Reduce Groundwater Flow and Transport Model Parameter Uncertainties

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