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An underestimated negative cloud feedback from cloud lifetime changes

Journal Article · · Nature Climate Change
 [1];  [2];  [3];  [4];  [5];  [6];  [2];  [2];  [2]
  1. Univ. of Leipzig (Germany); Pacific Northwest National Lab. (PNNL), Richland, WA (United States)
  2. Univ. of Leipzig (Germany)
  3. Univ. of Colorado, Boulder, CO (United States)
  4. Lawrence Livermore National Lab. (LLNL), Livermore, CA (United States)
  5. Pacific Northwest National Lab. (PNNL), Richland, WA (United States)
  6. Univ. of Leipzig (Germany); Climate Services Center Germany, Hamburg (Germany)
+ Show Author Affiliations

As the atmosphere warms, part of the cloud population shifts from ice and mixed phase (“cold”) to liquid (“warm”) clouds. Because warm clouds are more reflective and longerlived, this phase change reduces the solar flux absorbed by Earth and constitutes a negative radiative feedback. This cooling feedback is weaker in CMIP6 than in CMIP5, contributing to greater greenhouse warming. While this change is often attributed to improvements in simulated cloud phase, another model bias persists: warm clouds precipitate too readily, potentially leading to underestimated negative lifetime feedbacks. In this work, we modify a climate model to better simulate warm rain probability and find it exhibits a cloud lifetime feedback nearly three times larger than the default model. This suggests model errors in cloud-precipitation processes may bias cloud feedbacks as much as CMIP5–CMIP6 climate sensitivity differences. Reliable climate model projections therefore require improved cloud process realism guided by process-oriented observations and observational constraints.

Research Organization:
Pacific Northwest National Laboratory (PNNL), Richland, WA (United States)
Sponsoring Organization:
USDOE Office of Science (SC), Biological and Environmental Research (BER); National Science Foundation (NSF); National Aeronautics and Space Administration (NASA); European Research Council (ERC)
Grant/Contract Number:
AC05-76RL01830; AC52-07NA27344
OSTI ID:
1808069
Report Number(s):
PNNL-SA--149922
Journal Information:
Nature Climate Change, Journal Name: Nature Climate Change Journal Issue: 6 Vol. 11; ISSN 1758-678X
Publisher:
Nature Publishing GroupCopyright Statement
Country of Publication:
United States
Language:
English

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