An exponential build-up in seismic energy suggests a months-long nucleation of slow slip in Cascadia

Hulbert, Claudia L.; Rouet-Leduc, Bertrand Philippe Gerard; Jolivet, Romain; Johnson, Paul Allan

doi:10.1038/s41467-020-17754-9

An exponential build-up in seismic energy suggests a months-long nucleation of slow slip in Cascadia

Journal Article · Tue Aug 18 00:00:00 EDT 2020 · Nature Communications

DOI:https://doi.org/10.1038/s41467-020-17754-9· OSTI ID:1807833

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PSL Université, Paris (France). École Normale Supérieure; Los Alamos National Lab. (LANL), Los Alamos, NM (United States)
Los Alamos National Lab. (LANL), Los Alamos, NM (United States)
PSL Université, Paris (France). École Normale Supérieure; Institute Universitaire de France, Paris (France)

Slow slip events result from the spontaneous weakening of the subduction megathrust and bear strong resemblance to earthquakes, only slower. This resemblance allows us to study fundamental aspects of nucleation that remain elusive for classic, fast earthquakes. We rely on machine learning algorithms to infer slow slip timing from statistics of seismic waveforms. We find that patterns in seismic power follow the 14-month slow slip cycle in Cascadia, arguing in favor of the predictability of slow slip rupture. Here, we show that seismic power exponentially increases as the slowly slipping portion of the subduction zone approaches failure, a behavior that shares a striking similarity with the increase in acoustic power observed prior to laboratory slow slip events. Our results suggest that the nucleation phase of Cascadia slow slip events may last from several weeks up to several months.

View Accepted Manuscript (DOE)

Research Organization:: Los Alamos National Laboratory (LANL), Los Alamos, NM (United States)

Sponsoring Organization:: European Research Council (ERC); USDOE Laboratory Directed Research and Development (LDRD) Program; USDOE National Nuclear Security Administration (NNSA)

Grant/Contract Number:: 89233218CNA000001

OSTI ID:: 1807833

Report Number(s):: LA-UR--20-22489

Journal Information:: Nature Communications, Journal Name: Nature Communications Journal Issue: 1 Vol. 11; ISSN 2041-1723

Publisher:: Nature Publishing GroupCopyright Statement

Country of Publication:: United States

Language:: English

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