Energy Budget Constraints on the Time History of Aerosol Forcing and Climate Sensitivity

Smith, C. J.; Harris, G. R.; Palmer, M. D.; Bellouin, N.; Collins, W.; Myhre, G.; Schulz, M.; Golaz, J. ‐C.; Ringer, M.; Storelvmo, T.; Forster, P. M.

doi:10.1029/2020JD033622

Title: Energy Budget Constraints on the Time History of Aerosol Forcing and Climate Sensitivity

Journal Article · Fri Jul 02 00:00:00 EDT 2021 · Journal of Geophysical Research: Atmospheres

DOI:https://doi.org/10.1029/2020JD033622· OSTI ID:1805068

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Priestley International Centre for Climate University of Leeds Leeds UK, International Institute for Applied Systems Analysis (IIASA) Laxenburg Austria
Met Office Hadley Centre Exeter UK
Department of Meteorology University of Reading Reading UK
Center for International Climate and Environmental Research in Oslo (CICERO) Oslo Norway
Norwegian Meteorological Institute Oslo Norway
Lawrence Livermore National Laboratory Livermore CA USA
Department of Geosciences University of Oslo Norway
Priestley International Centre for Climate University of Leeds Leeds UK

Abstract An observationally constrained time series of historical aerosol effective radiative forcing (ERF) from 1750 to 2019 is developed in this study. We find that the time history of aerosol ERFs diagnosed in CMIP6 models exhibits considerable variation and explore how the time history of aerosol forcing influences the probability distributions of present‐day aerosol forcing and emergent metrics such as climate sensitivity. Using a simple energy balance model, trained on CMIP6 climate models and constrained by observed near‐surface warming and ocean heat uptake, we derive estimates for the historical aerosol forcing. We find 2005–2014 mean aerosol ERF to be −1.1 (−1.8 to −0.5) W m ⁻² relative to 1750. Assuming recently published historical emissions from fossil fuel and industrial sectors and biomass burning emissions from SSP2‐4.5, aerosol ERF in 2019 is −0.9 (−1.5 to −0.4) W m ⁻² . There is a modest recovery in aerosol forcing (+0.025 W m ⁻² decade ⁻¹ ) between 1980 and 2014. This analysis also gives a 5%–95% range of equilibrium climate sensitivity of 1.8°C –5.1°C (best estimate 3.1°C) with a transient climate response of 1.2°C –2.6°C (best estimate 1.8°C).

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Research Organization:: Lawrence Livermore National Laboratory (LLNL), Livermore, CA (United States)

Sponsoring Organization:: USDOE National Nuclear Security Administration (NNSA); Natural Environment Research Council (NERC); European Union's Horizon 2020; Business, Energy and Industrial Strategy (BEIS); USDOE Office of Science (SC), Biological and Environmental Research (BER)

Grant/Contract Number:: DE‐AC52‐07NA27344; AC52-07NA27344; NE/T009381/1; 820829; GA01101; 641816

OSTI ID:: 1805068

Alternate ID(s):: OSTI ID: 1805070; OSTI ID: 1887034

Report Number(s):: LLNL-JRNL-812168; e2020JD033622

Journal Information:: Journal of Geophysical Research: Atmospheres, Journal Name: Journal of Geophysical Research: Atmospheres Vol. 126 Journal Issue: 13; ISSN 2169-897X

Publisher:: American Geophysical Union (AGU)Copyright Statement

Country of Publication:: United States

Language:: English

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