Assessment of rainfall variability and future change in Brazil across multiple timescales

Alves, Lincoln M.; Chadwick, Robin; Moise, Aurel; Brown, Josephine; Marengo, Jose A.

doi:10.1002/joc.6818

Title: Assessment of rainfall variability and future change in Brazil across multiple timescales

Journal Article · Tue Sep 15 00:00:00 EDT 2020 · International Journal of Climatology

DOI:https://doi.org/10.1002/joc.6818· OSTI ID:1804828

^[1]; Chadwick, Robin ^[2]; Moise, Aurel ^[3]; Brown, Josephine ^[3]; Marengo, Jose A. ^[4]

National Institute for Space Research (INPE) São José dos Campos São Paulo Brazil
Met Office Hadley Centre Exeter UK, Global Systems Institute University of Exeter Exeter UK
Bureau of Meteorology Melbourne Victoria Australia
National Center for Monitoring and Early Warning of Natural Disasters (CEMADEN) São Paulo Brazil

Abstract Rainfall variability change under global warming is a crucial issue that may have a substantial impact on society and the environment, as it can directly impact biodiversity, agriculture, and water resources. Observed precipitation trends and climate change projections over Brazil indicate that many sectors of society are potentially highly vulnerable to the impacts of climate change. The purpose of this study is to assess model projections of the change in rainfall variability at various temporal scales over sub‐regions of Brazil. For this, daily data from 30 CMIP5 models for historical (1900–2005) and future (2050–2100) experiments under a high‐emission scenario are used. We assess the change in precipitation variability, applying a band‐pass filter to isolate variability on daily, weekly, monthly, intra‐seasonal, and El Nino Southern Oscillation (ENSO) time scales. For historical climate, simulated precipitation is evaluated against observations to establish model reliability. The results show that models largely agree on increases in variability on all timescales in all sub‐regions, except on ENSO timescales where models do not agree on the sign of future change. Brazil will experience more rainfall variability in the future that is, drier or more frequent dry periods and wetter wet periods on daily, weekly, monthly, and intra‐seasonal timescales, even in sub‐regions where future changes in mean rainfall are currently uncertain. This may provide useful information for climate change adaptation across, for example, the agriculture and water resource sectors in Brazil.

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Sponsoring Organization:: USDOE

OSTI ID:: 1804828

Journal Information:: International Journal of Climatology, Journal Name: International Journal of Climatology Vol. 41 Journal Issue: S1; ISSN 0899-8418

Publisher:: Wiley Blackwell (John Wiley & Sons)Copyright Statement

Country of Publication:: United Kingdom

Language:: English

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