Weakening aerosol direct radiative effects mitigate climate penalty on Chinese air quality

Hong, Chaopeng; Zhang, Qiang; Zhang, Yang; Davis, Steven J.; Zhang, Xin; Tong, Dan; Guan, Dabo; Liu, Zhu; He, Kebin

doi:10.1038/s41558-020-0840-y

Weakening aerosol direct radiative effects mitigate climate penalty on Chinese air quality

Journal Article · Mon Aug 03 00:00:00 UTC 2020 · Nature Climate Change

DOI:https://doi.org/10.1038/s41558-020-0840-y· OSTI ID:1801712

^[1]; ^[2]; Zhang, Yang ^[3]; ^[4]; ^[2]; Tong, Dan ^[2]; ^[2]; ^[2]; He, Kebin ^[2]

Tsinghua Univ., Beijing (China); Univ. of California, Irvine, CA (United States); OSTI
Tsinghua Univ., Beijing (China)
Northeastern Univ., Boston, MA (United States); North Carolina State Univ., Raleigh, NC (United States)
Tsinghua Univ., Beijing (China); Univ. of California, Irvine, CA (United States)

Future climate change may worsen air quality in many regions. However, evaluations of this ‘climate penalty’ on air quality have typically not assessed the radiative effects of changes in short-lived aerosols. Additionally, China’s clean air goals will decrease pollutant emissions and aerosol loadings, with concomitant weakening of aerosol feedbacks. In this work, we assess how such weakened aerosol direct effects alter the estimates of air pollution and premature mortality in China attributable to mid-century climate change under Representative Concentration Pathway 4.5. We found that weakening aerosol direct effects cause boundary layer changes that facilitate diffusion. This reduces air-pollution exposure (~4% in fine particulate matter) and deaths (13,800 people per year), which largely offset the additional deaths caused by greenhouse gas-dominated warming. These results highlight the benefits of reduced pollutant emissions through weakening aerosol direct effects and underline the potential of pollution control measures to mitigate climate penalties locked in by greenhouse gas emissions.

View Accepted Manuscript (DOE)

Research Organization:: North Carolina State Univ., Raleigh, NC (United States)

Sponsoring Organization:: National Natural Science Foundation of China (NSFC); National Science Foundation (NSF); USDOE Office of Science (SC), Biological and Environmental Research (BER)

Grant/Contract Number:: SC0006695

OSTI ID:: 1801712

Journal Information:: Nature Climate Change, Journal Name: Nature Climate Change Journal Issue: 9 Vol. 10; ISSN 1758-678X

Publisher:: Nature Publishing GroupCopyright Statement

Country of Publication:: United States

Language:: English

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Weakening aerosol direct radiative effects mitigate climate penalty on Chinese air quality

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