Role of Tropical Variability in Driving Decadal Shifts in the Southern Hemisphere Summertime Eddy-Driven Jet

Yang, Dongxia; Arblaster, Julie M.; Meehl, Gerald A.; England, Matthew H.; Lim, Eun-Pa; Bates, Susan; Rosenbloom, Nan

doi:10.1175/jcli-d-19-0604.1

Role of Tropical Variability in Driving Decadal Shifts in the Southern Hemisphere Summertime Eddy-Driven Jet

Journal Article · Wed Jul 01 00:00:00 EDT 2020 · Journal of Climate

DOI:https://doi.org/10.1175/jcli-d-19-0604.1· OSTI ID:1799699

Yang, Dongxia ^[1]; Arblaster, Julie M. ^[2]; Meehl, Gerald A. ^[3]; England, Matthew H. ^[4]; Lim, Eun-Pa ^[5]; Bates, Susan ^[3]; Rosenbloom, Nan ^[3]

Monash Univ., Melbourne, VIC (Australia). ARC Centre of Excellence for Climate Extremes; OSTI
Monash Univ., Melbourne, VIC (Australia). ARC Centre of Excellence for Climate Extremes ; National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA), Boulder, CO (United States)
National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA), Boulder, CO (United States)
Univ. of New South Wales, Sydney, NSW (Australia). ARC Centre of Excellence for Climate Extremes, Climate Change Research Centre
Bureau of Meteorology, Melbourne, VIC (Australia)

The Southern Hemisphere summertime eddy-driven jet and storm tracks have shifted poleward over the recent few decades. In previous studies, explanations have mainly stressed the influence of external forcing in driving this trend. Here we examine the role of internal tropical SST variability in controlling the austral summer jet’s poleward migration, with a focus on interdecadal time scales. The role of external forcing and internal variability are isolated by using a hierarchy of Community Earth System Model version 1 (CESM1) simulations, including the pre-industrial control, large ensemble, and pacemaker runs. Model simulations suggest that in the early twenty-first century, both external forcing and internal tropical Pacific SST variability are important in driving a positive southern annular mode (SAM) phase and a poleward migration of the eddy-driven jet. Tropical Pacific SST variability, associated with the negative phase of the interdecadal Pacific oscillation (IPO), acts to shift the jet poleward over the southern Indian and southwestern Pacific Oceans and intensify the jet in the southeastern Pacific basin, while external forcing drives a significant poleward jet shift in the South Atlantic basin. In response to both external forcing and decadal Pacific SST variability, the transient eddy momentum flux convergence belt in the middle latitudes experiences a poleward migration due to the enhanced meridional temperature gradient, leading to a zonally symmetric southward migration of the eddy-driven jet. This mechanism distinguishes the influence of the IPO on the midlatitude circulation from the dynamical impact of ENSO, with the latter mainly promoting the subtropical wave-breaking critical latitude poleward and pushing the midlatitude jet to higher latitudes.

View Accepted Manuscript (DOE)

Research Organization:: University Corporation for Atmospheric Research, Boulder, CO (United States)

Sponsoring Organization:: USDOE Office of Science (SC)

Grant/Contract Number:: FC02-97ER62402

OSTI ID:: 1799699

Journal Information:: Journal of Climate, Journal Name: Journal of Climate Journal Issue: 13 Vol. 33; ISSN 0894-8755

Publisher:: American Meteorological SocietyCopyright Statement

Country of Publication:: United States

Language:: English

References (68)

Quantifying barotropic and baroclinic eddy feedbacks in the persistence of the Southern Annular Mode Nie, Yu; Zhang, Yang; Chen, Gang Geophysical Research Letters, Vol. 41, Issue 23 https://doi.org/10.1002/2014GL062210	journal	December 2014
The impact of the Southern Annular Mode on future changes in Southern Hemisphere rainfall: THE SAM'S IMPACT ON FUTURE SH RAINFALL Lim, Eun-Pa; Hendon, Harry H.; Arblaster, Julie M. Geophysical Research Letters, Vol. 43, Issue 13 https://doi.org/10.1002/2016GL069453	journal	July 2016
Natural variations of tropical width and recent trends: Natural Variations of Tropical Width Mantsis, Damianos F.; Sherwood, Steven; Allen, Robert Geophysical Research Letters, Vol. 44, Issue 8 https://doi.org/10.1002/2016GL072097	journal	April 2017
Long-term ozone changes and associated climate impacts in CMIP5 simulations: OZONE AND ASSOCIATED CLIMATE IMPACTS Eyring, V.; Arblaster, J. M.; Cionni, I. Journal of Geophysical Research: Atmospheres, Vol. 118, Issue 10 https://doi.org/10.1002/jgrd.50316	journal	May 2013
The ERA-Interim reanalysis: configuration and performance of the data assimilation system Dee, D. P.; Uppala, S. M.; Simmons, A. J. Quarterly Journal of the Royal Meteorological Society, Vol. 137, Issue 656 https://doi.org/10.1002/qj.828	journal	April 2011
Understanding the SAM influence on the South Pacific ENSO teleconnection Fogt, Ryan L.; Bromwich, David H.; Hines, Keith M. Climate Dynamics, Vol. 36, Issue 7-8 https://doi.org/10.1007/s00382-010-0905-0	journal	September 2010
Understanding and predicting the strong Southern Annular Mode and its impact on the record wet east Australian spring 2010 Lim, Eun-Pa; Hendon, Harry H. Climate Dynamics, Vol. 44, Issue 9-10 https://doi.org/10.1007/s00382-014-2400-5	journal	November 2014
Interaction of the recent 50 year SST trend and La Niña 2010: amplification of the Southern Annular Mode and Australian springtime rainfall Lim, Eun-Pa; Hendon, Harry H.; Arblaster, Julie M. Climate Dynamics, Vol. 47, Issue 7-8 https://doi.org/10.1007/s00382-015-2963-9	journal	January 2016
May common model biases reduce CMIP5’s ability to simulate the recent Pacific La Niña-like cooling? Luo, Jing-Jia; Wang, Gang; Dommenget, Dietmar Climate Dynamics, Vol. 50, Issue 3-4 https://doi.org/10.1007/s00382-017-3688-8	journal	April 2017
Tropically driven and externally forced patterns of Antarctic sea ice change: reconciling observed and modeled trends Schneider, David P.; Deser, Clara Climate Dynamics, Vol. 50, Issue 11-12 https://doi.org/10.1007/s00382-017-3893-5	journal	September 2017
Connections Between Clouds, Radiation, and Midlatitude Dynamics: a Review Ceppi, Paulo; Hartmann, Dennis L. Current Climate Change Reports, Vol. 1, Issue 2 https://doi.org/10.1007/s40641-015-0010-x	journal	April 2015
Definition of Antarctic Oscillation index Gong, Daoyi; Wang, Shaowu Geophysical Research Letters, Vol. 26, Issue 4 https://doi.org/10.1029/1999GL900003	journal	February 1999
Global analyses of sea surface temperature, sea ice, and night marine air temperature since the late nineteenth century Rayner, N. A. Journal of Geophysical Research, Vol. 108, Issue D14 https://doi.org/10.1029/2002JD002670	journal	January 2003
A consistent poleward shift of the storm tracks in simulations of 21st century climate: POLEWARD SHIFT OF THE STORM TRACKS Yin, Jeffrey H. Geophysical Research Letters, Vol. 32, Issue 18 https://doi.org/10.1029/2005GL023684	journal	September 2005
Phase speed spectra and the recent poleward shift of Southern Hemisphere surface westerlies Chen, Gang; Held, Isaac M. Geophysical Research Letters, Vol. 34, Issue 21 https://doi.org/10.1029/2007GL031200	journal	January 2007
Observed and simulated changes in the Southern Hemisphere surface westerly wind-stress: CHANGES IN THE S.H. WESTERLIES Swart, N. C.; Fyfe, J. C. Geophysical Research Letters, Vol. 39, Issue 16 https://doi.org/10.1029/2012GL052810	journal	August 2012
Southern Hemisphere jet latitude biases in CMIP5 models linked to shortwave cloud forcing: JET LATITUDE AND CLOUD BIASES IN CMIP5 Ceppi, Paulo; Hwang, Yen-Ting; Frierson, Dargan M. W. Geophysical Research Letters, Vol. 39, Issue 19 https://doi.org/10.1029/2012GL053115	journal	October 2012
Role of the South Pacific Convergence Zone in West Antarctic Decadal Climate Variability Clem, Kyle R.; Lintner, Benjamin R.; Broccoli, Anthony J. Geophysical Research Letters, Vol. 46, Issue 12 https://doi.org/10.1029/2019GL082108	journal	June 2019
Tropical Teleconnections to Antarctic Sea Ice During Austral Spring 2016 in Coupled Pacemaker Experiments Purich, Ariaan; England, Matthew H. Geophysical Research Letters, Vol. 46, Issue 12 https://doi.org/10.1029/2019GL082671	journal	June 2019
Indian Ocean Warming Trend Reduces Pacific Warming Response to Anthropogenic Greenhouse Gases: An Interbasin Thermostat Mechanism Zhang, Lei; Han, Weiqing; Karnauskas, Kristopher B. Geophysical Research Letters, Vol. 46, Issue 19 https://doi.org/10.1029/2019GL084088	journal	October 2019
The next generation of scenarios for climate change research and assessment Moss, Richard H.; Edmonds, Jae A.; Hibbard, Kathy A. Nature, Vol. 463, Issue 7282 https://doi.org/10.1038/nature08823	journal	February 2010
Recent global-warming hiatus tied to equatorial Pacific surface cooling Kosaka, Yu; Xie, Shang-Ping Nature, Vol. 501, Issue 7467 https://doi.org/10.1038/nature12534	journal	August 2013
Detecting recovery of the stratospheric ozone layer Chipperfield, Martyn P.; Bekki, Slimane; Dhomse, Sandip Nature, Vol. 549, Issue 7671 https://doi.org/10.1038/nature23681	journal	September 2017
Recent intensification of wind-driven circulation in the Pacific and the ongoing warming hiatus England, Matthew H.; McGregor, Shayne; Spence, Paul Nature Climate Change, Vol. 4, Issue 3 https://doi.org/10.1038/nclimate2106	journal	February 2014
A global perspective on CMIP5 climate model biases Wang, Chunzai; Zhang, Liping; Lee, Sang-Ki Nature Climate Change, Vol. 4, Issue 3 https://doi.org/10.1038/nclimate2118	journal	February 2014
Recent Walker circulation strengthening and Pacific cooling amplified by Atlantic warming McGregor, Shayne; Timmermann, Axel; Stuecker, Malte F. Nature Climate Change, Vol. 4, Issue 10 https://doi.org/10.1038/nclimate2330	journal	August 2014
Atlantic-induced pan-tropical climate change over the past three decades Li, Xichen; Xie, Shang-Ping; Gille, Sarah T. Nature Climate Change, Vol. 6, Issue 3 https://doi.org/10.1038/nclimate2840	journal	November 2015
Evidence for link between modelled trends in Antarctic sea ice and underestimated westerly wind changes Purich, Ariaan; Cai, Wenju; England, Matthew H. Nature Communications, Vol. 7, Issue 1 https://doi.org/10.1038/ncomms10409	journal	February 2016
Antarctic sea-ice expansion between 2000 and 2014 driven by tropical Pacific decadal climate variability Meehl, Gerald A.; Arblaster, Julie M.; Bitz, Cecilia M. Nature Geoscience, Vol. 9, Issue 8 https://doi.org/10.1038/ngeo2751	journal	July 2016
Compounding tropical and stratospheric forcing of the record low Antarctic sea-ice in 2016 Wang, Guomin; Hendon, Harry H.; Arblaster, Julie M. Nature Communications, Vol. 10, Issue 1 https://doi.org/10.1038/s41467-018-07689-7	journal	January 2019
Sustained ocean changes contributed to sudden Antarctic sea ice retreat in late 2016 Meehl, Gerald A.; Arblaster, Julie M.; Chung, Christine T. Y. Nature Communications, Vol. 10, Issue 1 https://doi.org/10.1038/s41467-018-07865-9	journal	January 2019
Model tropical Atlantic biases underpin diminished Pacific decadal variability McGregor, Shayne; Stuecker, Malte F.; Kajtar, Jules B. Nature Climate Change, Vol. 8, Issue 6 https://doi.org/10.1038/s41558-018-0163-4	journal	May 2018
Reconciling opposing Walker circulation trends in observations and model projections Chung, Eui-Seok; Timmermann, Axel; Soden, Brian J. Nature Climate Change, Vol. 9, Issue 5 https://doi.org/10.1038/s41558-019-0446-4	journal	April 2019
West Antarctic ice loss influenced by internal climate variability and anthropogenic forcing Holland, Paul R.; Bracegirdle, Thomas J.; Dutrieux, Pierre Nature Geoscience, Vol. 12, Issue 9 https://doi.org/10.1038/s41561-019-0420-9	journal	August 2019
Continuation of tropical Pacific Ocean temperature trend may weaken extreme El Niño and its linkage to the Southern Annular Mode Lim, Eun-Pa; Hendon, Harry H.; Hope, Pandora Scientific Reports, Vol. 9, Issue 1 https://doi.org/10.1038/s41598-019-53371-3	journal	November 2019
Interpretation of Recent Southern Hemisphere Climate Change Thompson, D. W. J. Science, Vol. 296, Issue 5569 https://doi.org/10.1126/science.1069270	journal	May 2002
Detecting Ozone- and Greenhouse Gas–Driven Wind Trends with Observational Data Lee, Sukyoung; Feldstein, Steven B. Science, Vol. 339, Issue 6119 https://doi.org/10.1126/science.1225154	journal	January 2013
Southern Hemisphere Atmospheric Circulation Response to Global Warming Kushner, Paul J.; Held, Isaac M.; Delworth, Thomas L. Journal of Climate, Vol. 14, Issue 10 https://doi.org/10.1175/1520-0442(2001)014<0001:SHACRT>2.0.CO;2	journal	May 2001
Mechanisms of Hemispherically Symmetric Climate Variability* Seager, Richard; Harnik, Nili; Kushnir, Yochanan Journal of Climate, Vol. 16, Issue 18 https://doi.org/10.1175/1520-0442(2003)016<2960:MOHSCV>2.0.CO;2	journal	September 2003
Individual and Combined Influences of ENSO and the Indian Ocean Dipole on the Indian Summer Monsoon Ashok, Karumuri; Guan, Zhaoyong; Saji, N. H. Journal of Climate, Vol. 17, Issue 16 https://doi.org/10.1175/1520-0442(2004)017<3141:IACIOE>2.0.CO;2	journal	August 2004
Phase Speed Spectra of Transient Eddy Fluxes and Critical Layer Absorption Randel, William J.; Held, Isaac M. Journal of the Atmospheric Sciences, Vol. 48, Issue 5 https://doi.org/10.1175/1520-0469(1991)048<0688:PSSOTE>2.0.CO;2	journal	March 1991
A Mechanism and Simple Dynamical Model of the North Atlantic Oscillation and Annular Modes Vallis, Geoffrey K.; Gerber, Edwin P.; Kushner, Paul J. Journal of the Atmospheric Sciences, Vol. 61, Issue 3 https://doi.org/10.1175/1520-0469(2004)061<0264:AMASDM>2.0.CO;2	journal	February 2004
Improvements to NOAA’s Historical Merged Land–Ocean Surface Temperature Analysis (1880–2006) Smith, Thomas M.; Reynolds, Richard W.; Peterson, Thomas C. Journal of Climate, Vol. 21, Issue 10 https://doi.org/10.1175/2007JCLI2100.1	journal	May 2008
Response of the Zonal Mean Atmospheric Circulation to El Niño versus Global Warming Lu, Jian; Chen, Gang; Frierson, Dargan M. W. Journal of Climate, Vol. 21, Issue 22 https://doi.org/10.1175/2008JCLI2200.1	journal	November 2008
Phase Speed Spectra and the Latitude of Surface Westerlies: Interannual Variability and Global Warming Trend Chen, Gang; Lu, Jian; Frierson, Dargan M. W. Journal of Climate, Vol. 21, Issue 22 https://doi.org/10.1175/2008JCLI2306.1	journal	November 2008
Atmospheric Circulation Trends, 1950–2000: The Relative Roles of Sea Surface Temperature Forcing and Direct Atmospheric Radiative Forcing Deser, Clara; Phillips, Adam S. Journal of Climate, Vol. 22, Issue 2 https://doi.org/10.1175/2008JCLI2453.1	journal	January 2009
The Steady-State Atmospheric Circulation Response to Climate Change–like Thermal Forcings in a Simple General Circulation Model Butler, Amy H.; Thompson, David W. J.; Heikes, Ross Journal of Climate, Vol. 23, Issue 13 https://doi.org/10.1175/2010JCLI3228.1	journal	July 2010
Stratospheric Ozone Depletion: The Main Driver of Twentieth-Century Atmospheric Circulation Changes in the Southern Hemisphere Polvani, Lorenzo M.; Waugh, Darryn W.; Correa, Gustavo J. P. Journal of Climate, Vol. 24, Issue 3 https://doi.org/10.1175/2010JCLI3772.1	journal	February 2011
An Overview of CMIP5 and the Experiment Design Taylor, Karl E.; Stouffer, Ronald J.; Meehl, Gerald A. Bulletin of the American Meteorological Society, Vol. 93, Issue 4 https://doi.org/10.1175/BAMS-D-11-00094.1	journal	April 2012
The Community Earth System Model: A Framework for Collaborative Research Hurrell, James W.; Holland, M. M.; Gent, P. R. Bulletin of the American Meteorological Society, Vol. 94, Issue 9 https://doi.org/10.1175/BAMS-D-12-00121.1	journal	September 2013
The Community Earth System Model (CESM) Large Ensemble Project: A Community Resource for Studying Climate Change in the Presence of Internal Climate Variability Kay, J. E.; Deser, C.; Phillips, A. Bulletin of the American Meteorological Society, Vol. 96, Issue 8 https://doi.org/10.1175/BAMS-D-13-00255.1	journal	August 2015
A Simple GCM Study on the Relationship between ENSO and the Southern Annular Mode Gong, Tingting; Feldstein, Steven B.; Luo, Dehai Journal of the Atmospheric Sciences, Vol. 70, Issue 6 https://doi.org/10.1175/JAS-D-12-0161.1	journal	May 2013
Improving Antarctic Total Ozone Projections by a Process-Oriented Multiple Diagnostic Ensemble Regression Karpechko, Alexey Yu.; Maraun, Douglas; Eyring, Veronika Journal of the Atmospheric Sciences, Vol. 70, Issue 12 https://doi.org/10.1175/JAS-D-13-071.1	journal	December 2013
On the Tropical Atmospheric Signature of El Niño Adames, Ángel F.; Wallace, John M. Journal of the Atmospheric Sciences, Vol. 74, Issue 6 https://doi.org/10.1175/JAS-D-16-0309.1	journal	May 2017
Climate Change from 1850 to 2005 Simulated in CESM1(WACCM) Marsh, Daniel R.; Mills, Michael J.; Kinnison, Douglas E. Journal of Climate, Vol. 26, Issue 19 https://doi.org/10.1175/JCLI-D-12-00558.1	journal	October 2013
Understanding Hadley Cell Expansion versus Contraction: Insights from Simplified Models and Implications for Recent Observations Tandon, Neil F.; Gerber, Edwin P.; Sobel, Adam H. Journal of Climate, Vol. 26, Issue 12 https://doi.org/10.1175/JCLI-D-12-00598.1	journal	June 2013
Autumn Precipitation Trends over Southern Hemisphere Midlatitudes as Simulated by CMIP5 Models Purich, Ariaan; Cowan, Tim; Min, Seung-Ki Journal of Climate, Vol. 26, Issue 21 https://doi.org/10.1175/JCLI-D-13-00007.1	journal	October 2013
Seasonal Variations of Subtropical Precipitation Associated with the Southern Annular Mode Hendon, Harry H.; Lim, Eun-Pa; Nguyen, Hanh Journal of Climate, Vol. 27, Issue 9 https://doi.org/10.1175/JCLI-D-13-00550.1	journal	May 2014
A Rossby Wave Bridge from the Tropical Atlantic to West Antarctica Li, Xichen; Gerber, Edwin P.; Holland, David M. Journal of Climate, Vol. 28, Issue 6 https://doi.org/10.1175/JCLI-D-14-00450.1	journal	March 2015
Comparing the Impacts of Tropical SST Variability and Polar Stratospheric Ozone Loss on the Southern Ocean Westerly Winds Schneider, David P.; Deser, Clara; Fan, Tingting Journal of Climate, Vol. 28, Issue 23 https://doi.org/10.1175/JCLI-D-15-0090.1	journal	December 2015
Comparing Trends in the Southern Annular Mode and Surface Westerly Jet Swart, Neil C.; Fyfe, John C.; Gillett, Nathan Journal of Climate, Vol. 28, Issue 22 https://doi.org/10.1175/JCLI-D-15-0334.1	journal	November 2015
The Early 1990s Change in ENSO–PSA–SAM Relationships and Its Impact on Southern Hemisphere Climate Yu, Jin-Yi; Paek, Houk; Saltzman, Eric S. Journal of Climate, Vol. 28, Issue 23 https://doi.org/10.1175/JCLI-D-15-0335.1	journal	December 2015
Global Climate Impacts of Fixing the Southern Ocean Shortwave Radiation Bias in the Community Earth System Model (CESM) Kay, Jennifer E.; Wall, Casey; Yettella, Vineel Journal of Climate, Vol. 29, Issue 12 https://doi.org/10.1175/JCLI-D-15-0358.1	journal	June 2016
Highly Significant Responses to Anthropogenic Forcings of the Midlatitude Jet in the Southern Hemisphere Solomon, Abraham; Polvani, L. M. Journal of Climate, Vol. 29, Issue 9 https://doi.org/10.1175/JCLI-D-16-0034.1	journal	April 2016
Modeled and Observed Multidecadal Variability in the North Atlantic Jet Stream and Its Connection to Sea Surface Temperatures Simpson, Isla R.; Deser, Clara; McKinnon, Karen A. Journal of Climate, Vol. 31, Issue 20 https://doi.org/10.1175/JCLI-D-18-0168.1	journal	October 2018
Observed Relationships between the El Niño–Southern Oscillation and the Extratropical Zonal-Mean Circulation L’Heureux, Michelle L.; Thompson, David W. J. Journal of Climate, Vol. 19, Issue 2 https://doi.org/10.1175/JCLI3617.1	journal	January 2006
Contributions of External Forcings to Southern Annular Mode Trends Arblaster, Julie M.; Meehl, Gerald A. Journal of Climate, Vol. 19, Issue 12 https://doi.org/10.1175/JCLI3774.1	journal	June 2006
Ozone database in support of CMIP5 simulations: results and corresponding radiative forcing Cionni, I.; Eyring, V.; Lamarque, J. F. Atmospheric Chemistry and Physics, Vol. 11, Issue 21 https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-11-11267-2011	journal	January 2011

Similar Records

The Role of Coupled Feedbacks in the Decadal Variability of the Southern Hemisphere Eddy-Driven Jet

Journal Article · Mon Oct 18 20:00:00 EDT 2021 · Journal of Geophysical Research. Atmospheres · OSTI ID:1923915

How Would the Twenty-First-Century Warming Influence Pacific Decadal Variability and Its Connection to North American Rainfall: Assessment Based on a Revised Procedure for the IPO/PDO

Journal Article · Wed Jan 31 19:00:00 EST 2018 · Journal of Climate · OSTI ID:1419615

Related Subjects

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES
Annular mode
Climate models
Decadal variability
Meteorology & Atmospheric Sciences
Pacific decadal oscillation
Rossby waves
Teleconnections

Role of Tropical Variability in Driving Decadal Shifts in the Southern Hemisphere Summertime Eddy-Driven Jet

Citation Formats

References (68)

Similar Records

Related Subjects