Statistical emulation of a perturbed basal melt ensemble of an ice sheet model to better quantify Antarctic sea level rise uncertainties

Berdahl, Mira; Leguy, Gunter; Lipscomb, William H.; Urban, Nathan M.

doi:10.5194/tc-15-2683-2021

Title: Statistical emulation of a perturbed basal melt ensemble of an ice sheet model to better quantify Antarctic sea level rise uncertainties

Journal Article · Tue Jun 15 00:00:00 EDT 2021 · The Cryosphere (Online)

DOI:https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-15-2683-2021· OSTI ID:1788284

;

; Urban, Nathan M.

Antarctic ice shelves are vulnerable to warming ocean temperatures, and some have already begun thinning in response to increased basal melt rates. Sea level is therefore expected to rise due to Antarctic contributions, but uncertainties in its amount and timing remain largely unquantified. In particular, there is substantial uncertainty in future basal melt rates arising from multi-model differences in thermal forcing and how melt rates depend on that thermal forcing. To facilitate uncertainty quantification in sea level rise projections, we build, validate, and demonstrate projections from a computationally efficient statistical emulator of a high-resolution (4 km) Antarctic ice sheet model, the Community Ice Sheet Model version 2.1. The emulator is trained to a large (500-member) ensemble of 200-year-long 4 km resolution transient ice sheet simulations, whereby regional basal melt rates are perturbed by idealized (yet physically informed) trajectories. The main advantage of our emulation approach is that by sampling a wide range of possible basal melt trajectories, the emulator can be used to (1) produce probabilistic sea level rise projections over much larger Monte Carlo ensembles than are possible by direct numerical simulation alone, thereby providing better statistical characterization of uncertainties, and (2) predict the simulated ice sheet response under differing assumptions about basal melt characteristics as new oceanographic studies are published, without having to run additional numerical ice sheet simulations. As a proof of concept, we propagate uncertainties about future basal melt rate trajectories, derived from regional ocean models, to generate probabilistic sea level rise estimates for 100 and 200 years into the future.

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Research Organization:: Brookhaven National Laboratory (BNL), Upton, NY (United States); Los Alamos National Laboratory (LANL), Los Alamos, NM (United States)

Sponsoring Organization:: USDOE Office of Science (SC), Biological and Environmental Research (BER); USDOE National Nuclear Security Administration (NNSA)

Grant/Contract Number:: 1234; SC0012704; 89233218CNA000001

OSTI ID:: 1788284

Alternate ID(s):: OSTI ID: 1805256; OSTI ID: 1819163; OSTI ID: 1867174

Report Number(s):: BNL-221728-2021-JAAM; LA-UR-21-26694; LA-UR-20-26601

Journal Information:: The Cryosphere (Online), Journal Name: The Cryosphere (Online) Vol. 15 Journal Issue: 6; ISSN 1994-0424

Publisher:: Copernicus GmbHCopyright Statement

Country of Publication:: Germany

Language:: English

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97 MATHEMATICS AND COMPUTING
Earth Sciences
Antarctica
ice sheet
ice shelf
sea level rise
uncertainty
emulator
Gaussian process

Title: Statistical emulation of a perturbed basal melt ensemble of an ice sheet model to better quantify Antarctic sea level rise uncertainties

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