Estimating induced land use change emissions for sustainable aviation biofuel pathways

Zhao, Xin; Taheripour, Farzad; Malina, Robert; Staples, Mark D.; Tyner, Wallace E.

doi:10.1016/j.scitotenv.2021.146238

Estimating induced land use change emissions for sustainable aviation biofuel pathways

Journal Article · Thu Mar 04 23:00:00 EST 2021 · Science of the Total Environment

DOI:https://doi.org/10.1016/j.scitotenv.2021.146238· OSTI ID:1784951

^[1]; Taheripour, Farzad ^[2]; Malina, Robert ^[3]; Staples, Mark D. ^[4]; Tyner, Wallace E. ^[2]

Purdue Univ., West Lafayette, IN (United States); Pacific Northwest National Lab. (PNNL), Richland, WA (United States)
Purdue Univ., West Lafayette, IN (United States)
Hasselt Univ., Diepenbeek (Belgium); Massachusetts Inst. of Technology (MIT), Cambridge, MA (United States)
Massachusetts Inst. of Technology (MIT), Cambridge, MA (United States)

Sustainable aviation fuels (SAFs) are expected to play an essential role in achieving the aviation industries’ goal of carbon-neutral growth. However, producing biomass-based SAFs may induce changes in global land use and the associated carbon stock. The induced land use change (ILUC) emissions, as a part of the full life-cycle emissions for SAF pathways, will affect whether and to what extent SAFs reduce emissions compared with petroleum-based jet fuels. Here, we estimate the ILUC emission intensity for seventeen SAF pathways considered by the International Civil Aviation Organization (ICAO), covering five ASTM-certified technologies, nine biomass-based feedstocks, and four geographical regions. We introduce the SAF pathways into a well-established computable general equilibrium (CGE) model, GTAP-BIO, and its coupled emission accounting model, AEZ-EF, to study economy-wide implications of SAF production and estimate ILUC emissions intensity for each pathway. The estimated SAF ILUC emission intensities, using a 25-year amortization period, range from -58.5 g CO₂e MJ^-1 for the USA miscanthus alcohol (isobutanol)-to-jet (ATJ) pathway to 34.6 g CO₂e MJ^-1 for the Malaysia & Indonesia palm oil Hydrotreated Esters of Fatty Acids (HEFA) pathway. Notably, the vegetable oil pathways tend to have higher ILUC emission intensities due to their linkage to palm expansion and peatland oxidation in Southeast Asia. The cellulosic pathways studied provide negative ILUC emissions, mainly driven by the high carbon sequestrations in crop biomass and soil. Using the core life-cycle emissions established by ICAO, we show that fifteen of the assessed pathways have a lower full life-cycle emission intensity than petroleum-based jet fuels (89 g CO₂e MJ^-1), offering promising options to reduce aviation emissions.

View Accepted Manuscript (DOE)

Research Organization:: Pacific Northwest National Laboratory (PNNL), Richland, WA (United States)

Sponsoring Organization:: USDOE

Grant/Contract Number:: AC05-76RL01830

OSTI ID:: 1784951

Report Number(s):: PNNL-SA--158626

Journal Information:: Science of the Total Environment, Journal Name: Science of the Total Environment Vol. 779; ISSN 0048-9697

Publisher:: ElsevierCopyright Statement

Country of Publication:: United States

Language:: English

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