Skip to main content
U.S. Department of Energy
Office of Scientific and Technical Information

The 2020 photovoltaic technologies roadmap

Journal Article · · Journal of Physics. D, Applied Physics
 [1];  [2];  [2];  [3];  [4];  [5];  [2];  [6];  [2];  [7];  [2];  [2];  [8];  [9];  [2];  [10];  [11];  [2];  [12];  [2] more »;  [13];  [2];  [2];  [14];  [2];  [15];  [2] « less
  1. GM Wilson Consulting, LLC, Denver, CO (United States)
  2. National Renewable Energy Lab. (NREL), Golden, CO (United States)
  3. Fraunhofer Inst. for Solar Energy Systems, Freiburg (Germany); Univ. of Freiburg (Germany). Lab. for Photovoltaic Energy Conversion (INATECH)
  4. AMROCK Pty. Ltd., McLaren Vale (Australia); Univ. of New South Wales, Sydney, NSW (Australia)
  5. First Solar Inc., Santa Clara, CA (United States)
  6. HelioSourceTech LLC, Tucson, AZ (United States)
  7. Univ. of Toledo, OH (United States). Wright Center for Photovoltaics Innovation and Commercialization (PVIC)
  8. Fraunhofer Inst. for Solar Energy Systems, Freiburg (Germany)
  9. Antora Energy, Fremont, CA (United States)
  10. Inst. for Solar Energy Research Hamelin (ISFH), Emmerthal (Germany); Leibniz Univ. Hannover (Germany). Inst. of Electronic Materials and Devices
  11. Australian National Univ., Canberra, ACT (Australia)
  12. Architectural Solar Association, Boulder, CO (United States)
  13. First Solar Inc., Tempe, AZ (United States); RE_PlantSolutions, LLC, Tempe, AZ (United States)
  14. DNV GL, Oakland, CA (United States)
  15. Arizona State Univ., Mesa, AZ (United States). Photovoltaic Reliability Lab. (ASU-PRL)

Over the past decade, the global cumulative installed photovoltaic (PV) capacity has grown exponentially, reaching 591 GW in 2019. Rapid progress was driven in large part by improvements in solar cell and module efficiencies, reduction in manufacturing costs and the realization of levelized costs of electricity that are now generally less than other energy sources and approaching similar costs with storage included. Given this success, it is a particularly fitting time to assess the state of the photovoltaics field and the technology milestones that must be achieved to maximize future impact and forward momentum. This roadmap outlines the critical areas of development in all of the major PV conversion technologies, advances needed to enable terawatt-scale PV installation, and cross-cutting topics on reliability, characterization, and applications. Each perspective provides a status update, summarizes the limiting immediate and long-term technical challenges and highlights breakthroughs that are needed to address them. In total, this roadmap is intended to guide researchers, funding agencies and industry in identifying the areas of development that will have the most impact on PV technology in the upcoming years.

Research Organization:
National Renewable Energy Laboratory (NREL), Golden, CO (United States)
Sponsoring Organization:
USDOE Office of Energy Efficiency and Renewable Energy (EERE), Solar Energy Technologies Office
Grant/Contract Number:
AC36-08GO28308; EE0008753
OSTI ID:
1782696
Alternate ID(s):
OSTI ID: 23015245
Report Number(s):
NREL/JA--5K00-76570; MainId:7244; UUID:b3423b64-7e22-48cd-b1d9-0b8ef645cc82; MainAdminID:22419
Journal Information:
Journal of Physics. D, Applied Physics, Journal Name: Journal of Physics. D, Applied Physics Journal Issue: 49 Vol. 53; ISSN 0022-3727
Publisher:
IOP PublishingCopyright Statement
Country of Publication:
United States
Language:
English

References (106)

High Efficiency Perovskite‐Silicon Tandem Solar Cells: Effect of Surface Coating versus Bulk Incorporation of 2D Perovskite journal January 2020
Photovoltaic Degradation Rates-an Analytical Review: Photovoltaic degradation rates journal October 2011
Compendium of photovoltaic degradation rates: Photovoltaic degradation rates journal February 2016
Outdoor photoluminescence imaging of photovoltaic modules with sunlight excitation journal September 2017
Investigating PID shunting in polycrystalline silicon modules via multiscale, multitechnique characterization journal February 2018
Characterization of dual‐junction III‐V on Si tandem solar cells with 23.7% efficiency under low concentration journal April 2019
Solar cell efficiency tables (version 54) journal June 2019
Solar cell efficiency tables (Version 55)
  • Green, Martin A.; Dunlop, Ewan D.; Hohl‐Ebinger, Jochen
  • Progress in Photovoltaics: Research and Applications, Vol. 28, Issue 1 https://doi.org/10.1002/pip.3228
journal December 2019
Silicon solar cell–integrated stress and temperature sensors for photovoltaic modules journal February 2020
Flexible CdTe solar cells on polymer films journal January 2001
A comparison of different module configurations for multi-band-gap solar cells journal May 1988
Geographic information system algorithms to locate prospective sites for pumped hydro energy storage journal July 2018
Integrating solar PV (photovoltaics) in utility system operations: Analytical framework and Arizona case study journal June 2015
Envisioning a low-cost solar future: Exploring the potential impact of Achieving the SunShot 2030 targets for photovoltaics journal July 2018
Sunny with a Chance of Curtailment: Operating the US Grid with Very High Levels of Solar Photovoltaics journal November 2019
High throughput MOVPE and accelerated growth rate of GaAs for PV application journal March 2019
MOVPE growth of GaAs with growth rates up to 280 µm/h journal May 2020
Projecting the Future Levelized Cost of Electricity Storage Technologies journal January 2019
Bimolecular Additives Improve Wide-Band-Gap Perovskites for Efficient Tandem Solar Cells with CIGS journal July 2019
Free-standing 2.7 μm thick ultrathin crystalline silicon solar cell with efficiency above 12.0% journal April 2020
Timescales of energy storage needed for reducing renewable energy curtailment journal January 2019
Scientific and economic comparison of outdoor characterisation methods for photovoltaic power plants journal April 2019
Review on life cycle assessment of energy payback and greenhouse gas emission of solar photovoltaic systems journal March 2013
Floating photovoltaic plants: Performance analysis and design solutions journal January 2018
Environmental impacts of copper‑indium‑gallium-selenide (CIGS) photovoltaics and the elimination of cadmium through atomic layer deposition journal October 2019
High-efficiency polycrystalline CdTe thin-film solar cells journal December 2004
Tabulated values of the Shockley–Queisser limit for single junction solar cells journal June 2016
Overbuilding & curtailment: The cost-effective enablers of firm PV generation journal March 2019
Tunnel oxide passivated contacts as an alternative to partial rear contacts journal December 2014
20% efficient solar cells fabricated from epitaxially grown and freestanding n-type wafers journal January 2017
Review of grain interior, grain boundary, and interface effects of K in CIGS solar cells: Mechanisms for performance enhancement journal December 2017
SiO2 surface passivation layers – a key technology for silicon solar cells journal October 2018
Hydrogen induced degradation: A possible mechanism for light- and elevated temperature- induced degradation in n-type silicon journal October 2018
Laser contact openings for local poly-Si-metal contacts enabling 26.1%-efficient POLO-IBC solar cells journal November 2018
Reassessment of intrinsic lifetime limit in n-type crystalline silicon and implication on maximum solar cell efficiency journal November 2018
Silicon heterojunction solar cells: Recent technological development and practical aspects - from lab to industry journal December 2018
24.58% total area efficiency of screen-printed, large area industrial silicon solar cells with the tunnel oxide passivated contacts (i-TOPCon) design journal March 2020
CIGS thin-film solar cells on steel substrates journal February 2009
Innovation highway: Breakthrough milestones and key developments in chalcopyrite photovoltaics from a retrospective viewpoint journal July 2017
Synthetic Approaches for Halide Perovskite Thin Films journal November 2018
Understanding Degradation Mechanisms and Improving Stability of Perovskite Photovoltaics journal November 2018
Floating Photovoltaic Systems: Assessing the Technical Potential of Photovoltaic Systems on Man-Made Water Bodies in the Continental United States journal December 2018
Growth of AlGaAs, AlInP, and AlGaInP by Hydride Vapor Phase Epitaxy journal December 2019
Two-Dimensional Cadmium Chloride Nanosheets in Cadmium Telluride Solar Cells journal June 2017
Thermomechanical Lift-Off and Recontacting of CdTe Solar Cells journal November 2018
Perovskite Photovoltaics: The Path to a Printable Terawatt-Scale Technology journal October 2017
Organometal Halide Perovskites as Visible-Light Sensitizers for Photovoltaic Cells journal May 2009
Scalable fabrication of perovskite solar cells journal March 2018
Re-assessment of net energy production and greenhouse gas emissions avoidance after 40 years of photovoltaics development journal December 2016
CdTe solar cells with open-circuit voltage breaking the 1 V barrier journal February 2016
Raising the one-sun conversion efficiency of III–V/Si solar cells to 32.8% for two junctions and 35.9% for three junctions journal August 2017
Silicon heterojunction solar cell with interdigitated back contacts for a photoconversion efficiency over 26% journal March 2017
Simple processing of back-contacted silicon heterojunction solar cells using selective-area crystalline growth journal April 2017
Highly efficient Cu(In,Ga)Se2 solar cells grown on flexible polymer films journal September 2011
III–V-on-silicon solar cells reaching 33% photoconversion efficiency in two-terminal configuration journal April 2018
Economic viability of thin-film tandem solar modules in the United States journal April 2018
Increasing markets and decreasing package weight for high-specific-power photovoltaics journal November 2018
Exceeding 20% efficiency with in situ group V doping in polycrystalline CdTe solar cells journal August 2019
Monolithic all-perovskite tandem solar cells with 24.8% efficiency exploiting comproportionation to suppress Sn(ii) oxidation in precursor ink journal September 2019
Fully textured monolithic perovskite/silicon tandem solar cells with 25.2% power conversion efficiency journal June 2018
Photodoping through local charge carrier accumulation in alloyed hybrid perovskites for highly efficient luminescence journal November 2019
On-device lead sequestration for perovskite solar cells journal February 2020
Agrivoltaics provide mutual benefits across the food–energy–water nexus in drylands journal September 2019
Lead Iodide Perovskite Sensitized All-Solid-State Submicron Thin Film Mesoscopic Solar Cell with Efficiency Exceeding 9% journal August 2012
Maximizing tandem solar cell power extraction using a three-terminal design journal January 2018
Impact of perovskite solar cell degradation on the lifetime energy yield and economic viability of perovskite/silicon tandem modules journal January 2019
Three-terminal III–V/Si tandem solar cells enabled by a transparent conductive adhesive journal January 2020
22.8% efficient silicon solar cell journal September 1989
Thin‐film CdS/CdTe solar cell with 15.8% efficiency journal May 1993
A new electric field effect in silicon solar cells journal October 1973
A New Silicon p‐n Junction Photocell for Converting Solar Radiation into Electrical Power journal May 1954
Single-crystal II-VI on Si single-junction and tandem solar cells journal April 2010
High-efficiency, flexible CdTe solar cells on ultra-thin glass substrates journal March 2015
Back-surface recombination, electron reflectors, and paths to 28% efficiency for thin-film photovoltaics: A CdTe case study journal February 2019
Determination of BO-LID and LeTID related activation energies in Cz-Si and FZ-Si using constant injection conditions
  • Graf, Alexander; Herguth, Axel; Hahn, Giso
  • 15th International Conference on Concentrator Photovoltaic Systems (CPV-15), AIP Conference Proceedings https://doi.org/10.1063/1.5123890
conference January 2019
GaAs growth rates of 528 μ m/h using dynamic-hydride vapor phase epitaxy with a nitrogen carrier gas journal May 2020
Thin Film Deposition Methods for CuInSe 2 Solar Cells journal March 2005
Electronic defects in Cu ( In , Ga ) S e 2 : Towards a comprehensive model journal September 2019
Multi-Variable Bifacial Photovoltaic Module Test Results and Best-Fit Annual Bifacial Energy Yield Model journal January 2016
Reassessment of the Limiting Efficiency for Crystalline Silicon Solar Cells journal October 2013
Modeling the Irradiance and Temperature Dependence of Photovoltaic Modules in PVsyst journal January 2015
Silver–Carbon-Nanotube Metal Matrix Composites for Metal Contacts on Space Photovoltaic Cells journal January 2016
Degradation of Crystalline Silicon Due to Boron–Oxygen Defects journal January 2017
High V oc in (Cu,Ag)(In,Ga)Se 2 Solar Cells journal November 2017
Silicon Heterojunction System Field Performance journal January 2018
Sputter-Deposited Oxides for Interface Passivation of CdTe Photovoltaics journal March 2018
From Laboratory to Production: Learning Models of Efficiency and Manufacturing Cost of Industrial Crystalline Silicon and Thin-Film Photovoltaic Technologies journal November 2018
Mismatch Loss in Bifacial Modules Due to Nonuniform Illumination in 1-D Tracking Systems journal November 2019
Cd-Free Cu(In,Ga)(Se,S) 2 Thin-Film Solar Cell With Record Efficiency of 23.35% journal November 2019
Signal Processing on PV Time-Series Data: Robust Degradation Analysis Without Physical Models journal March 2020
Review: Ultraviolet Fluorescence as Assessment Tool for Photovoltaic Modules journal March 2020
Implications of geographic diversity for short-term variability and predictability of solar power conference July 2011
New data set for validating PV module performance models
  • Marion, Bill; Anderberg, Allan; Deline, Chris
  • 2014 IEEE 40th Photovoltaic Specialists Conference (PVSC), 2014 IEEE 40th Photovoltaic Specialist Conference (PVSC) https://doi.org/10.1109/PVSC.2014.6925171
conference June 2014
Screen Printed Contacts to III-V Epilayers for Low Cost Photovoltaics
  • Wood, Joshua D.; Stender, Christopher L.; Youtsey, Christopher T.
  • 2018 IEEE 7th World Conference on Photovoltaic Energy Conversion (WCPEC) (A Joint Conference of 45th IEEE PVSC, 28th PVSEC & 34th EU PVSEC) https://doi.org/10.1109/PVSC.2018.8547701
conference June 2018
Hydrogen-Induced Degradation
  • Wenham, Alison Ciesla nee; Wenham, Stuart; Chen, Ran
  • 2018 IEEE 7th World Conference on Photovoltaic Energy Conversion (WCPEC) (A Joint Conference of 45th IEEE PVSC, 28th PVSEC & 34th EU PVSEC) https://doi.org/10.1109/PVSC.2018.8548100
conference June 2018
Endogenous Assessment of the Capacity Value of Solar PV in Generation Investment Planning Studies journal October 2015
In situ recombination junction between p-Si and TiO 2 enables high-efficiency monolithic perovskite/Si tandem cells journal December 2018
Efficient Hybrid Solar Cells Based on Meso-Superstructured Organometal Halide Perovskites journal October 2012
Challenges for commercializing perovskite solar cells journal September 2018
Carrier lifetimes of >1 μs in Sn-Pb perovskites enable efficient all-perovskite tandem solar cells journal April 2019
Terawatt-scale photovoltaics: Transform global energy journal May 2019
Efficient, stable solar cells by using inherent bandgap of α-phase formamidinium lead iodide journal November 2019
Sustainability metrics for extending thin-film photovoltaics to terawatt levels journal April 2012
Estimating Parameters for the PVsyst Version 6 Photovoltaic Module Performance Model report October 2015
Dielectric-Based Rear Surface Passivation Approaches for Cu(In,Ga)Se2 Solar Cells—A Review journal February 2019
Sequential and combined acceleration tests for crystalline Si photovoltaic modules journal March 2016