Probability of Loss of Assured Safety in Systems with Multiple Time-Dependent Failure Modes: Incorporation of Delayed Link Failure in the Presence of Aleatory Uncertainty

Helton, Jon C.; Brooks, Dusty M.; Sallaberry, Cédric J.

doi:10.1016/j.ress.2021.108064

Probability of Loss of Assured Safety in Systems with Multiple Time-Dependent Failure Modes: Incorporation of Delayed Link Failure in the Presence of Aleatory Uncertainty

Journal Article · Mon Sep 20 00:00:00 EDT 2021 · Reliability Engineering and System Safety

DOI:https://doi.org/10.1016/j.ress.2021.108064· OSTI ID:1781560

Helton, Jon C. ^[1]; Brooks, Dusty M. ^[2]; Sallaberry, Cédric J. ^[3]

Arizona State Univ., Tempe, AZ (United States)
Sandia National Lab. (SNL-NM), Albuquerque, NM (United States)
Engineering Mechanics Corporation of Columbus, Columbus, OH (United States)

Probability of loss of assured safety (PLOAS) is modeled for weak link (WL)/strong link (SL) systems in which one or more WLs or SLs could potentially degrade into a precursor condition to link failure that will be followed by an actual link failure after some amount of elapsed time. The descriptor loss of assured safety (LOAS) is used because failure of the WL system places the entire system in an inoperable configuration while failure of the SL system before failure of the WL system, although undesirable, does not necessarily result in an unintended operation of the entire system. Thus, safety is “assured” by failure of the WL system before failure of the SL system. Here, the following topics are considered: (i) Definition of precursor occurrence time cumulative distribution functions (CDFs) for individual WLs and SLs, (ii) Formal representation, approximation and illustration of PLOAS with (a) constant delay times, (b) aleatory uncertainty in delay times, and (c) delay times defined by functions of link properties at occurrence times for link failure precursors, and (iii) Procedures for the verification of PLOAS calculations for the three indicated definitions of delayed link failure.

View Accepted Manuscript (DOE)

Research Organization:: Sandia National Laboratories (SNL-NM), Albuquerque, NM (United States)

Sponsoring Organization:: USDOE National Nuclear Security Administration (NNSA)

Grant/Contract Number:: AC04-94AL85000

OSTI ID:: 1781560

Alternate ID(s):: OSTI ID: 1862436

Report Number(s):: SAND--2021-4234J; 695418

Journal Information:: Reliability Engineering and System Safety, Journal Name: Reliability Engineering and System Safety Vol. 223; ISSN 0951-8320

Publisher:: ElsevierCopyright Statement

Country of Publication:: United States

Language:: English

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58 GEOSCIENCES
Aleatory uncertainty
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