A coupled human–natural system analysis of freshwater security under climate and population change

Yoon, James J.; Klassert, Christian; Selby, Philip; Lachaut, Thibaut; Knox, Stephen; Avisse, Nicolas; Harou, Julien; Tilmant, Amaury; Klauer, Bernd; Mustafa, Daanish; Sigel, Katja; Talozi, Samer; Gawel, Erik; Medellín-Azuara, Josue; Bataineh, Bushra; Zhang, Hua; Gorelick, Steven M.

doi:10.1073/pnas.2020431118

A coupled human–natural system analysis of freshwater security under climate and population change

Journal Article · Mon Mar 29 00:00:00 EDT 2021 · Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences of the United States of America

DOI:https://doi.org/10.1073/pnas.2020431118· OSTI ID:1779277

Yoon, James J. ^[1]; ^[2]; Selby, Philip ^[3]; Lachaut, Thibaut ^[4]; Knox, Stephen ^[3]; ^[4]; Harou, Julien ^[3]; ^[4]; ^[2]; ^[5]; Sigel, Katja ^[2]; ^[6]; Gawel, Erik ^[7]; ^[8]; ^[9]; ^[10]; Gorelick, Steven M. ^[11]

Pacific Northwest National Lab. (PNNL), Richland, WA (United States)
Helmholtz Centre for Environmental Research–UFZ, Leipzig (Germany)
Univ. of Manchester (United Kingdom)
Universite Laval, Quebec, QC (Canada)
King's College, London (United Kingdom)
Jordan Univ. of Science and Technology, Irbid (Jordan)
Helmholtz Centre for Environmental Research–UFZ, Leipzig (Germany); Leipzig University (Germany)
Univ. of California, Merced, CA (United States)
Bechtel Corporation, Reston, VA (United States)
Texas A & M Univ., Corpus Christi, TX (United States)
Stanford Univ., CA (United States)

Limited water availability, population growth, and climate change have resulted in freshwater crises in many countries. Jordan’s situation is emblematic, compounded by conflict-induced population shocks. Integrating knowledge across hydrology, climatology, agriculture, political science, geography, and economics, we present the Jordan Water Model, a nationwide coupled human–natural-engineered systems model that is used to evaluate Jordan’s freshwater security under climate and socioeconomic changes. The complex systems model simulates the trajectory of Jordan’s water system, representing dynamic interactions between a hierarchy of actors and the natural and engineered water environment. A multiagent modeling approach enables the quantification of impacts at the level of thousands of representative agents across sectors, allowing for the evaluation of both systemwide and distributional outcomes translated into a suite of water-security metrics (vulnerability, equity, shortage duration, and economic well-being). Model results indicate severe, potentially destabilizing, declines in freshwater security. Per capita water availability decreases by approximately 50% by the end of the century. Without intervening measures, >90% of the low-income household population experiences critical insecurity by the end of the century, receiving <40 L per capita per day. Widening disparity in freshwater use, lengthening shortage durations, and declining economic welfare are prevalent across narratives. To gain a foothold on its freshwater future, Jordan must enact a sweeping portfolio of ambitious interventions that include large-scale desalinization and comprehensive water sector reform, with model results revealing exponential improvements in water security through the coordination of supply- and demand-side measures.

View Accepted Manuscript (DOE)

Research Organization:: Pacific Northwest National Laboratory (PNNL), Richland, WA (United States)

Sponsoring Organization:: Deutsche Forschungsgemeinschaft (DFG); Federal Ministry of Education and Research (BMBF); National Science Foundation (NSF); Natural Environment Research Council (NERC); US Agency for International Development (USAID); USDOE; USGS

Grant/Contract Number:: AC05-76RL01830

OSTI ID:: 1779277

Report Number(s):: PNNL-SA--159190

Journal Information:: Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences of the United States of America, Journal Name: Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences of the United States of America Journal Issue: 14 Vol. 118; ISSN 0027-8424

Publisher:: National Academy of SciencesCopyright Statement

Country of Publication:: United States

Language:: English

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A coupled human–natural system analysis of freshwater security under climate and population change

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