Evaluating the economic impact of water scarcity in a changing world

Dolan, Flannery; Lamontagne, Jonathan; Link, Robert; Hejazi, Mohamad; Reed, Patrick; Edmonds, Jae

doi:10.1038/s41467-021-22194-0

Evaluating the economic impact of water scarcity in a changing world

Journal Article · Fri Mar 26 00:00:00 EDT 2021 · Nature Communications

DOI:https://doi.org/10.1038/s41467-021-22194-0· OSTI ID:1772840

; ; Link, Robert; Hejazi, Mohamad; ;

Abstract

Water scarcity is dynamic and complex, emerging from the combined influences of climate change, basin-level water resources, and managed systems’ adaptive capacities. Beyond geophysical stressors and responses, it is critical to also consider how multi-sector, multi-scale economic teleconnections mitigate or exacerbate water shortages. Here, we contribute a global-to-basin-scale exploratory analysis of potential water scarcity impacts by linking a global human-Earth system model, a global hydrologic model, and a metric for the loss of economic surplus due to resource shortages. We find that, dependent on scenario assumptions, major hydrologic basins can experience strongly positive or strongly negative economic impacts due to global trade dynamics and market adaptations to regional scarcity. In many cases, market adaptation profoundly magnifies economic uncertainty relative to hydrologic uncertainty. Our analysis finds that impactful scenarios are often combinations of standard scenarios, showcasing that planners cannot presume drivers of uncertainty in complex adaptive systems.

View Journal Article

Research Organization:: Pacific Northwest National Laboratory (PNNL), Richland, WA (United States)

Sponsoring Organization:: USDOE; USDOE Office of Science (SC)

Grant/Contract Number:: AC05-76RL01830

OSTI ID:: 1772840

Alternate ID(s):: OSTI ID: 1772810

Report Number(s):: PNNL-SA--153247; 1915; PII: 22194

Journal Information:: Nature Communications, Journal Name: Nature Communications Journal Issue: 1 Vol. 12; ISSN 2041-1723

Publisher:: Nature Publishing GroupCopyright Statement

Country of Publication:: United Kingdom

Language:: English

References (54)

Water scarcity assessments in the past, present, and future: REVIEW ON WATER SCARCITY ASSESSMENT Liu, Junguo; Yang, Hong; Gosling, Simon N. Earth's Future, Vol. 5, Issue 6 https://doi.org/10.1002/2016EF000518	journal	June 2017
Large Ensemble Analytic Framework for Consequence‐Driven Discovery of Climate Change Scenarios Lamontagne, Jonathan R.; Reed, Patrick M.; Link, Robert Earth's Future, Vol. 6, Issue 3 https://doi.org/10.1002/2017EF000701	journal	March 2018
The representative concentration pathways: an overview van Vuuren, Detlef P.; Edmonds, Jae; Kainuma, Mikiko Climatic Change, Vol. 109, Issue 1-2 https://doi.org/10.1007/s10584-011-0148-z	journal	August 2011
A global assessment of the impact of climate change on water scarcity Gosling, Simon N.; Arnell, Nigel W. Climatic Change, Vol. 134, Issue 3 https://doi.org/10.1007/s10584-013-0853-x	journal	August 2013
Balancing global water availability and use at basin scale in an integrated assessment model Kim, Son H.; Hejazi, Mohamad; Liu, Lu Climatic Change, Vol. 136, Issue 2 https://doi.org/10.1007/s10584-016-1604-6	journal	January 2016
The measurement of water scarcity: Defining a meaningful indicator Damkjaer, Simon; Taylor, Richard Ambio, Vol. 46, Issue 5 https://doi.org/10.1007/s13280-017-0912-z	journal	March 2017
A simple approach to assess water scarcity integrating water quantity and quality Zeng, Zhao; Liu, Junguo; Savenije, Hubert H. G. Ecological Indicators, Vol. 34 https://doi.org/10.1016/j.ecolind.2013.06.012	journal	November 2013
Assessing water scarcity by simultaneously considering environmental flow requirements, water quantity, and water quality Liu, Junguo; Liu, Qingying; Yang, Hong Ecological Indicators, Vol. 60 https://doi.org/10.1016/j.ecolind.2015.07.019	journal	January 2016
Climate impacts on hydropower and consequences for global electricity supply investment needs Turner, Sean W. D.; Hejazi, Mohamad; Kim, Son H. Energy, Vol. 141 https://doi.org/10.1016/j.energy.2017.11.089	journal	December 2017
The diversity of socio-economic pathways and CO2 emissions scenarios: Insights from the investigation of a scenarios database Guivarch, Céline; Rozenberg, Julie; Schweizer, Vanessa Environmental Modelling & Software, Vol. 80 https://doi.org/10.1016/j.envsoft.2016.03.006	journal	June 2016
The roads ahead: Narratives for shared socioeconomic pathways describing world futures in the 21st century O’Neill, Brian C.; Kriegler, Elmar; Ebi, Kristie L. Global Environmental Change, Vol. 42 https://doi.org/10.1016/j.gloenvcha.2015.01.004	journal	January 2017
The SSP4: A world of deepening inequality Calvin, Katherine; Bond-Lamberty, Ben; Clarke, Leon Global Environmental Change, Vol. 42 https://doi.org/10.1016/j.gloenvcha.2016.06.010	journal	January 2017
Hydro-economic models: Concepts, design, applications, and future prospects Harou, Julien J.; Pulido-Velazquez, Manuel; Rosenberg, David E. Journal of Hydrology, Vol. 375, Issue 3-4 https://doi.org/10.1016/j.jhydrol.2009.06.037	journal	September 2009
Modeling water scarcity and droughts for policy adaptation to climate change in arid and semiarid regions Kahil, Mohamed Taher; Dinar, Ariel; Albiac, Jose Journal of Hydrology, Vol. 522 https://doi.org/10.1016/j.jhydrol.2014.12.042	journal	March 2015
A pathway of global food supply adaptation in a world with increasingly constrained groundwater Turner, Sean W. D.; Hejazi, Mohamad; Calvin, Katherine Science of The Total Environment, Vol. 673 https://doi.org/10.1016/j.scitotenv.2019.04.070	journal	July 2019
Thinking inside the box: A participatory, computer-assisted approach to scenario discovery Bryant, Benjamin P.; Lempert, Robert J. Technological Forecasting and Social Change, Vol. 77, Issue 1 https://doi.org/10.1016/j.techfore.2009.08.002	journal	January 2010
Long-term global water projections using six socioeconomic scenarios in an integrated assessment modeling framework Hejazi, Mohamad; Edmonds, James; Clarke, Leon Technological Forecasting and Social Change, Vol. 81 https://doi.org/10.1016/j.techfore.2013.05.006	journal	January 2014
The economic impact of restricted water supply: A computable general equilibrium analysis Berrittella, Maria; Hoekstra, Arjen Y.; Rehdanz, Katrin Water Research, Vol. 41, Issue 8 https://doi.org/10.1016/j.watres.2007.01.010	journal	April 2007
Characterizing Climate-Change Uncertainties for Decision-Makers. An Editorial Essay Lempert, Robert; Nakicenovic, Nebojsa; Sarewitz, Daniel Climatic Change, Vol. 65, Issue 1/2 https://doi.org/10.1023/B:CLIM.0000037561.75281.b3	journal	July 2004
Future water availability for global food production: The potential of green water for increasing resilience to global change: WATER AVAILABILITY FOR FOOD PRODUCTION Rockström, Johan; Falkenmark, Malin; Karlberg, Louise Water Resources Research, Vol. 45, Issue 7 https://doi.org/10.1029/2007WR006767	journal	February 2009
Influence of Groundwater Extraction Costs and Resource Depletion Limits on Simulated Global Nonrenewable Water Withdrawals Over the Twenty‐First Century Turner, Sean W. D.; Hejazi, Mohamad; Yonkofski, Catherine Earth's Future, Vol. 7, Issue 2 https://doi.org/10.1029/2018EF001105	journal	February 2019
Water Sector Assumptions for the Shared Socioeconomic Pathways in an Integrated Modeling Framework Graham, Neal T.; Davies, Evan G. R.; Hejazi, Mohamad I. Water Resources Research, Vol. 54, Issue 9 https://doi.org/10.1029/2018WR023452	journal	September 2018
Managing Water Scarcity: An Evaluation of Interregional Transfers Vaux, H. J.; Howitt, Richard E. Water Resources Research, Vol. 20, Issue 7 https://doi.org/10.1029/WR020i007p00785	journal	July 1984
Flexibility and intensity of global water use Qin, Yue; Mueller, Nathaniel D.; Siebert, Stefan Nature Sustainability, Vol. 2, Issue 6 https://doi.org/10.1038/s41893-019-0294-2	journal	June 2019
Global effects of local food-production crises: a virtual water perspective Tamea, Stefania; Laio, Francesco; Ridolfi, Luca Scientific Reports, Vol. 6, Issue 1 https://doi.org/10.1038/srep18803	journal	January 2016
A new decision sciences for complex systems Lempert, R. J. Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences, Vol. 99, Issue Supplement 3 https://doi.org/10.1073/pnas.082081699	journal	May 2002
The water footprint of humanity Hoekstra, A. Y.; Mekonnen, M. M. Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences, Vol. 109, Issue 9 https://doi.org/10.1073/pnas.1109936109	journal	February 2012
Evolution of the global virtual water trade network Dalin, C.; Konar, M.; Hanasaki, N. Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences, Vol. 109, Issue 16 https://doi.org/10.1073/pnas.1203176109	journal	April 2012
Multimodel assessment of water scarcity under climate change Schewe, Jacob; Heinke, Jens; Gerten, Dieter Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences, Vol. 111, Issue 9 https://doi.org/10.1073/pnas.1222460110	journal	December 2013
Virtual groundwater transfers from overexploited aquifers in the United States Marston, Landon; Konar, Megan; Cai, Ximing Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences, Vol. 112, Issue 28 https://doi.org/10.1073/pnas.1500457112	journal	June 2015
Defining Uncertainty: A Conceptual Basis for Uncertainty Management in Model-Based Decision Support Walker, W. E.; Harremoës, P.; Rotmans, J. Integrated Assessment, Vol. 4, Issue 1 https://doi.org/10.1076/iaij.4.1.5.16466	journal	March 2003
The water footprint of staple crop trade under climate and policy scenarios Konar, Megan; Reimer, Jeffrey J.; Hussein, Zekarias Environmental Research Letters, Vol. 11, Issue 3 https://doi.org/10.1088/1748-9326/11/3/035006	journal	February 2016
Sources of uncertainty in hydrological climate impact assessment: a cross-scale study Hattermann, F. F.; Vetter, T.; Breuer, L. Environmental Research Letters, Vol. 13, Issue 1 https://doi.org/10.1088/1748-9326/aa9938	journal	December 2017
Regional responses to future, demand-driven water scarcity Cui, Ryna Yiyun; Calvin, Katherine; Clarke, Leon Environmental Research Letters, Vol. 13, Issue 9 https://doi.org/10.1088/1748-9326/aad8f7	journal	August 2018
The economics of water scarcity and variability Damania, Richard Oxford Review of Economic Policy, Vol. 36, Issue 1 https://doi.org/10.1093/oxrep/grz027	journal	January 2020
The Water Poverty Index: Development and application at the community scale Sullivan, C. A.; Meigh, J. R.; Giacomello, A. M. Natural Resources Forum, Vol. 27, Issue 3 https://doi.org/10.1111/1477-8947.00054	journal	August 2003
Macro-scale water scarcity requires micro-scale approaches Falkenmark, Malin; Lundqvist, Jan; Widstrand, Carl Natural Resources Forum, Vol. 13, Issue 4 https://doi.org/10.1111/j.1477-8947.1989.tb00348.x	journal	November 1989
Water scarcity and the impact of improved irrigation management: a computable general equilibrium analysis Calzadilla, Alvaro; Rehdanz, Katrin; Tol, Richard S. J. Agricultural Economics, Vol. 42, Issue 3 https://doi.org/10.1111/j.1574-0862.2010.00516.x	journal	October 2010
Four billion people facing severe water scarcity Mekonnen, Mesfin M.; Hoekstra, Arjen Y. Science Advances, Vol. 2, Issue 2 https://doi.org/10.1126/sciadv.1500323	journal	February 2016
The impact of high-end climate change on agricultural welfare Stevanović, Miodrag; Popp, Alexander; Lotze-Campen, Hermann Science Advances, Vol. 2, Issue 8 https://doi.org/10.1126/sciadv.1501452	journal	August 2016
Global Water Resources: Vulnerability from Climate Change and Population Growth Vorosmarty, C. J. Science, Vol. 289, Issue 5477 https://doi.org/10.1126/science.289.5477.284	journal	July 2000
Fresh water goes global Vorosmarty, C. J.; Hoekstra, A. Y.; Bunn, S. E. Science, Vol. 349, Issue 6247 https://doi.org/10.1126/science.aac6009	journal	July 2015
Can Paris pledges avert severe climate change? Fawcett, A. A.; Iyer, G. C.; Clarke, L. E. Science, Vol. 350, Issue 6265 https://doi.org/10.1126/science.aad5761	journal	November 2015
Global Market and Economic Welfare Implications of Changes in Agricultural Yields due to Climate Change Calvin, Katherine; Mignone, Bryan K.; Kheshgi, Haroon S. Climate Change Economics, Vol. 11, Issue 01 https://doi.org/10.1142/S2010007820500050	journal	February 2020
The Dynamical Core, Physical Parameterizations, and Basic Simulation Characteristics of the Atmospheric Component AM3 of the GFDL Global Coupled Model CM3 Donner, Leo J.; Wyman, Bruce L.; Hemler, Richard S. Journal of Climate, Vol. 24, Issue 13 https://doi.org/10.1175/2011JCLI3955.1	journal	July 2011
Classification And Regression Trees Breiman, Leo; Friedman, Jerome H.; Olshen, Richard A. https://doi.org/10.1201/9781315139470	book	January 1984
Exploratory Modeling for Policy Analysis Bankes, Steve Operations Research, Vol. 41, Issue 3 https://doi.org/10.1287/opre.41.3.435	journal	June 1993
Simulating the Cascading Effects of an Extreme Agricultural Production Shock: Global Implications of a Contemporary US Dust Bowl Event Heslin, Alison; Puma, Michael J.; Marchand, Philippe Frontiers in Sustainable Food Systems, Vol. 4 https://doi.org/10.3389/fsufs.2020.00026	journal	March 2020
GCAM v5.1: representing the linkages between energy, water, land, climate, and economic systems Calvin, Katherine; Patel, Pralit; Clarke, Leon Geoscientific Model Development, Vol. 12, Issue 2 https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-12-677-2019	journal	January 2019
Development and evaluation of an Earth-System model – HadGEM2 Collins, W. J.; Bellouin, N.; Doutriaux-Boucher, M. Geoscientific Model Development, Vol. 4, Issue 4 https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-4-1051-2011	journal	January 2011
MIROC-ESM 2010: model description and basic results of CMIP5-20c3m experiments Watanabe, S.; Hajima, T.; Sudo, K. Geoscientific Model Development, Vol. 4, Issue 4 https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-4-845-2011	journal	January 2011
The Norwegian Earth System Model, NorESM1-M – Part 1: Description and basic evaluation of the physical climate Bentsen, M.; Bethke, I.; Debernard, J. B. Geoscientific Model Development, Vol. 6, Issue 3 https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-6-687-2013	journal	January 2013
Integrated assessment of global water scarcity over the 21st century under multiple climate change mitigation policies Hejazi, M. I.; Edmonds, J.; Clarke, L. Hydrology and Earth System Sciences, Vol. 18, Issue 8 https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-18-2859-2014	journal	January 2014
Xanthos – A Global Hydrologic Model Li, Xinya; Vernon, Chris R.; Hejazi, Mohamad I. Journal of Open Research Software, Vol. 5 https://doi.org/10.5334/jors.181	journal	September 2017

Similar Records

Modeling the Economic and Environmental Impacts of Land Scarcity Under Deep Uncertainty

Journal Article · Wed Feb 02 19:00:00 EST 2022 · Earth's Future · OSTI ID:1843539

Related Subjects

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES
Climate and earth system modelling
environmental economics
hydrology

Evaluating the economic impact of water scarcity in a changing world

Citation Formats

References (54)

Similar Records

Related Subjects