Identifying precursors of daily to seasonal hydrological extremes over the USA using deep learning techniques and climate model ensembles
- Univ. of Colorado, Boulder, CO (United States)
- Univ. of Colorado, Boulder, CO (United States); National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA), Boulder, CO (United States)
Focal Area(s): We focus on two areas of crosscutting interest for DOE: 1) predictability of extreme precipitation and drought in the USA and 2) the integration of climate models with new AI tools, such as convolutional neural networks (CNN) and methods to understand their output (e.g. layer-wise relevance propagation; LRP). This project fits into focus area 3 of this call for white paper using AI to gain insight from complex data, including explainable AI tools. Science Challenge: Predicting hydrological extremes is important due to their impacts on people, agriculture and infrastructure. This prediction is difficult due to the infrequent occurrence of extremes and their complexity. However, extreme events can be related to more predictable conditions in the ocean, such as El Nino, long-term soil moisture or large scale modes of climate variability, such as the North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO).
- Research Organization:
- Artificial Intelligence for Earth System Predictability (AI4ESP) Collaboration (United States)
- Sponsoring Organization:
- USDOE Office of Science (SC), Biological and Environmental Research (BER)
- OSTI ID:
- 1769719
- Report Number(s):
- AI4ESP--1087
- Country of Publication:
- United States
- Language:
- English
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