Earth System Model Improvement Pipeline via Uncertainty Attribution and Active Learning
- Sandia National Lab. (SNL-CA), Livermore, CA (United States)
- Oak Ridge National Lab. (ORNL), Oak Ridge, TN (United States)
Primary focal area: 2 (Predictive Modeling via AI): We develop methods to formally quantify uncertainties in Earth System models for the land-atmosphere coupled system. Science Challenge: Earth system models still have significant biases in historical predictions of the intensity and frequency of water cycling extremes (e.g., droughts and flood events), leading to low confidence in future projections. Uncertainties arise from incomplete understanding of land and atmospheric processes, and insufficient observational constraints on model parameters. Many observations, including those from key DOE investments such as ARM and AmeriFlux, are used to evaluate model performance but have not been used to formally quantify model uncertainty because of the expense of running ESM simulations. An efficient pipeline engaging cutting-edge machine learning (ML) and uncertainty quantification (UQ) methods is needed to improve the predictive understanding of water cycle extremes in the Earth system.
- Research Organization:
- Artificial Intelligence for Earth System Predictability (AI4ESP) Collaboration (United States)
- Sponsoring Organization:
- USDOE Office of Science (SC), Biological and Environmental Research (BER)
- OSTI ID:
- 1769699
- Report Number(s):
- AI4ESP--1117
- Country of Publication:
- United States
- Language:
- English
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